/ 26 April 2001

A battle for power in the regions

Eastern Cape

Branches in the provinces are unsure whether Makhenkesi Stofile will be available for the position of African National Congress chair at the next provincial congress.

Stofile had indicated in the local media last year that he would not be available. Should he stand, the feeling is that Stofile, who replaced Raymond Mhlaba as premier in 1997, would enjoy a comfortable win.

The former ANC treasurer-general and chief whip in the national Parliament was deployed to the Eastern Cape to help resurrect his party’s fortunes and has managed to entrench himself firmly in the party structures.

The million-dollar question is whether a leader of Stofile’s stature would be satisfied in continuing to function at a provincial level. At age 56, he might either settle down for another innings in the province, and then retire, or he might try for a national deployment.

The national leadership seems satisfied with his performance. Among the names of emerging leaders who could lead the province are those of MEC for Education Stone Sizani, who is currently deputy chair of the party, and the efficient MEC for Finance Enoch Godongwana.

Free State

While there is no disputing that the dissolution of the ANC’s provincial executive committee last year has managed to stabilise the province politically, party members scratch their heads for any names to propose as a new, effective leadership.

The province has been plagued with divisions between the southern and northern regions, which no leader deployed from the national office whether Minister of Defence Mosiuoa Lekota, Tito Mboweni, Tony Yengeni, Minister of Posts, Telecommunications and Broadcasting Ivy Matsepe-Casaburri or current Premier Winkie Direko have managed to effectively eliminate.

There is a faction in the province that believes that old rivalries between the southern and northern regions are likely to reemerge in the upcoming elections for provincial office bearers.

They are also likely to be fanned by some resentment on the part of certain branches that the decision to dissolve the provincial executive committee was imposed on them by the national leadership.

Southern region leader Zingile Dingane, who had successfully challenged Matsepe-Casaburri during a special ANC conference in 1997, is punted as being one of the leading contenders for the position of chair. Dingane is currently MEC for Finance.

His main challenger could be northern region leader Ace Magashule, who was finance and economic affairs MEC during Lekota’s tenure.

Should an effective leadership emerge, there is a feeling that Direko, who is 71 years old, should retire from politics.

Gauteng

Mbhazima Shilowa could be in the running for the position of provincial ANC chair. Sources close to him have indicated that the former trade unionist is considering making himself available for the position.

This comes amid speculation that Shilowa, who spent considerable time overseas last year, might be considering making an exit from active politics. The speculation had fuelled rumours that the competent MEC for Finance Jabu Moleketi could make a bid for the position of provincial chair.

The Gauteng provincial executive committee was dissolved last year and is being run by an interim structure.

Shilowa leads a loyal and hardworking Cabinet, which seems to have put aside its differences arising out of political origins the South African Communist Party and the ANC.

Mathole Motshekga, whose removal from the premiership in 1999 resulted in divisions within ANC structures, has been effectively eased out of the political scene in the province. The divisions between Gauteng regions, which were sparked by support and opposition for Motshekga, have been healed.

With some backing from the national leadership, Shilowa could stand a good chance of becoming ANC chair.

But the more visible Moleketi and MEC for Housing Paul Mashatile should not be ruled out as candidates.

Another favourite is MEC for Sport, Recreation, Arts and Culture Mondli Gungubele.

KwaZulu-Natal

Dr Zweli Mkhize, current deputy chair of the ANC provincial executive committee in KwaZulu-Natal, lost the party’s chairmanship to S’bu Ndebele by 21 votes in the last provincial election.

With that close a fight, tensions are bound to spring up between the two camps Ndebele’s centered around Durban and Mkhize’s support base traditionally based in the Natal Midlands.

Mkhize is MEC for Health while Ndebele is MEC for Transport in the province’s coalition government.

The latest speculation is that Mkhize is a nose ahead of Ndebele on the popularity vote, having managed to garner support from party structures in Durban.

Ndebele’s recent gaffes, including his chastising of KwaZulu-Natal residents who voted for the Democratic Alliance and other parties, have not been forgotten by the rank and file in the ANC. This has heightened tensions between the two camps.

There is strong speculation that a publicity campaign adversely affecting the ministerial portfolios of either or both is likely to hit the media soon.

Mpumalanga

Two factions have emerged in this province. Neither proposes existing chair and Premier Ndaweni Mahlangu as its candidate.

While some in the party structures are kind to Mahlangu who was deployed to the province by the national leadership in 1999 calling him “innocent and politically naive”, others complain that he has failed to clamp down on corruption.

Says a party member: “Everyone is out to make money for himself here.” Another said: “The situation is so bad that if [former premier Mathews] Phosa were to stand again today he would get a clear majority.”

Loyalties remain with Phosa, who was ousted from the province following an investigation conducted by the party national leadership into political infighting.

The inquiry, initiated by the party’s national executive, culminated in a report which accused Phosa of having prior knowledge of shady dealings within the province and of “autocratic leadership”, among other things.

Among those identified in the pro-Phosa camp, who could be running for positions in the party’s provincial structures, are the Speaker, William Lubisi, former MEC for Public Works Jackson Mthembu, who resigned from the party provincial working committee this week, and former finance MEC Lassy Chiwayo.

Former Phosa loyalist and youth league leader James Nkambule, who was instrumental in Phosa’s downfall in 1999, is supporting another faction which is punting the current MEC for Housing and Land Administration as well as the party’s deputy provincial chair David Mabuza, acting MEC for Finance Jacob Mabena and former MEC for local government Fish Mahlalela.

Northern Cape

Indications are that the competent Manne Dipico (42) who has led the provincial structures efficiently might have his eyes set on a national deployment.

If Dipico should stand for election as ANC chair in the province, there is no doubt he will win the post with an overwhelming majority.

Among those identified as the emerging new leadership in the Northern Cape is current ANC provincial treasurer Dipuo Peters, who also holds the health portfolio in the provincial cabinet and Pakes Dikgetsi, the MEC for Housing and Local Government.

Kgalema Motlanthe, ANC secretary general, praised the provincial leadership in his mid-term report last year for its “high degree of political cohesiveness” which has managed to ensure the participation of coloured people in party structures, especially in regions such as Namaqualand and Hantam.

Northern Province

While no one really criticises Ngoako Ramatlhodi, there is a widespread feeling that he has not managed to unify the factions in a province plagued by political intrigue.

“He is a hopeless administrator,” says an ANC source.

It is believed that Ramatlhodi has not been able to unify party structures across ethnic lines in a province composed of Venda, Shangaan and Pedi communities.

ANC secretary general Kgalema Motlanthe noted a “worrying impression” in his mid-term report last year of “seeming alienation and political and social distance of the provincial leadership in government, in the legislatures and in the constitutional structures from our structures, the alliance and the?community”.

Dwindling membership and non-functioning branches particularly in the southern region, which had only 15 active branches last year compared with 186 in 1998 were also identified as causes for concern. Consequently, the ANC head office dissolved the provincial executive committee last week.

Factions in the party structures believe that the current crisis was sparked by an alleged campaign by current secretary Benny Boshielo for the position of chair in the coming provincial elections. However, Boshielo says he heard the “malicious rumours” and wrote a letter addressed to the regions stating that he would not be making himself available for the position.

Then others believe that the challenges to the provincial leadership came earlier this year when there were rumours that Ramatlhodi was in line for a deputy ministership in Cape Town. Unfortunately, he never made the grade.

The national leadership is expected to announce the names of interim provincial leaders soon. There is speculation that pressure is being applied on national Minister of Provincial and Local Government Sydney Mufamadi, a Venda from the province, to take up the challenge.

It seems highly unlikely that Mbeki would allow a loyalist like Mufamadi to leave the inner circle.

Among the other names that crop up while discussing new leadership in the province are those of Joel Netshitenzhe and Peter Mokaba.

North West

It will be interesting to see how Luthuli House deals with Popo Molefe. Mbeki loyalists in ANC headquarters regard him as a threat to their president and have tried to link him to a controversial pamphlet calling for “one term, one president” alleged to have been masterminded by the SACP’s provincial leadership.

Molefe, who has impeccable struggle credentials from the United Democratic Front trenches, has denied any involvement in the pamphlet.

It is widely known in the province that Molefe enjoys a close working relationship with the SACP, which has supported him against his detractors. It is therefore easy for the Mbeki camp to make the connection.

Molefe (49), who is into his second and in terms of the Constitution his final term as premier, will be hoping for a deployment to the National Assembly. ANC grassroots members say it is not clear whether Molefe will be available for the position of provincial chair.

Among those punted as possible candidates is the efficient MEC for Developmental Local Government and MEC for Housing, Darky Africa; there are rumors that he is being fielded by one or another faction to replace Molefe as premier. MEC for Traditional and Corporate Affairs Jerry Thibedi, who is currently deputy chair, is likely to be reelected.

Western Cape

This province has also been plagued with infighting, which has been blamed for the ANC’s dismal performance in the local government elections where it lost the Cape Town metro to the DA.

The national working committee of the ANC visited the province this week, effectively endorsed the provincial leadership and asked the party structures to combat racism in the province.

An anonymous document circulated in the ANC structures earlier this year suggested there were two campaigns in the party emanating from the south-east metro region (in Khayelitsha) and the northern suburbs region to oust the current leadership, particularly provincial secretary Mncebisi Skwatsha and ANC’s head of communications Cameron Dugmore.

While it seems as if current party chair Ebrahim Rasool is in danger of losing his position, the party’s national leadership has rallied support behind him.

The anonymous document, which is rumoured to have originated from within the party’s provincial leadership, claims that Rasool has not been successful in unifying factions in the ANC.

It suggests names such as Minister of Social Development Zola Skweyiya, former party chair Reverend Chris Nissen, former provincial secretary James Ngculu, northern suburbs region member Richard Dyantji and provincial executive committee member Nyami Booi as possible replacements.

The party’s failed mayoral candidate Lynne Brown could also be going for a top position and current deputy chair Noma-India Mfeketo remains popular.