/ 18 June 2008

Obama’s real test starts now

He has roused black and young voters as never before, but Barack Obama has to maintain the rest of the Democratic base.

He has roused black and young voters as never before, but Barack Obama has to maintain the rest of the Democratic base.

In any democracy the link between the electoral and the political is essential but not inextricable. Between the trappings of democracy and the trials of legislating, there is power. The balance, distribution and strategic exercise of it shapes the relationship between expectations and possibility, marking the distinction between being the will of the people and the work of government.

It is this tension that lies at the heart of Barack Obama’s candidacy and the energy it has unleashed. To attract 75 000 people to a rally, as he recently did in Portland, Oregon, shows immense drawing power. The question is, what do you say to them when they get there?

On the one hand he has managed to articulate the aspirations of many people from whom we previously heard little, if anything, in American politics and mobilise them into a formidable voting bloc. On the other, the progressive forces that have gathered around him have now wedded themselves to a decidedly mainstream, tepid political agenda. Obama, at times, appears to embrace assaults on his base.

That an Obama victory would mark a radical improvement on George Bush and be far preferable to John McCain, there can be no doubt. Electorally, that is important. But politically, it leaves open the question of whether he is prepared to adopt an ambitious programme that can address the mess he will inherit.

Politically, this question could have been asked of any of his main Democratic rivals in the primaries, none of whom pursued radical agendas. But electorally, more has always been claimed of his candidacy and more has also been expected of it.

Let’s start with the obvious. Electorally, Obama’s nomination marks a truly exciting and historic moment in United States history. In a nation that prides itself on relentless progress and social meritocracy, the symbolic importance of a black president can be over-exaggerated. But that does not mean it should be dismissed. He was born before he had the constitutional right to vote (secured by the 1965 Voting Rights Act), to mixed-race parents who did not have the constitutional right to marry (the supreme court legalised miscegenation only in 1967). His campaign represents a milestone in America’s scarred racial landscape. Of the 10 blackest states, he won nine; of the 10 whitest, he won seven. He has broken a mould. And it can’t be reset.

Moreover, his candidacy has sparked a realignment in the coalition of forces that comprise the Democratic Party, by rousing dormant and ignored constituencies — notably the black and the young. The Democrats have consistently won the youth vote since 1992 but have failed to galvanise a sufficiently high turnout for it to be decisive. The black vote, on other hand, has long been both crucial and taken for granted. The party has won the majority of the white vote in a presidential election only once since World War II. In the past both groups were at best treated as junior partners and at worst simply forgotten.

Not any more. Obama’s campaign helped raise the share of young people’s (18 to 29) votes in the Democratic primary more than 50% compared with 2004. Between them the young vote and the black vote comprised 28,8% of the Democratic primary electorate in 2004. This year it was 35,1%. Their swelling numbers and contagious enthusiasm will give them considerable leverage within the party.

If — a big if — he can maintain the rest of the Democratic base, this could bring into play states such as Virginia and North Carolina, which the Democrats have not won since 1964 and 1976 respectively. His candidacy could set an earthquake under the established electoral map. He has also transformed the model for funding, creating a broad, popular base of small donors. Unprecedented numbers of people have invested in him. The question is whether they will see a return.

The earliest signs have not been promising. The day after he clinched the nomination, he went with Hillary Clinton and McCain to genuflect before the pro-Israeli lobby to declare himself a ”true friend of Israel”. But good friends sometimes tell one another things they need to hear, even if they don’t want to. America’s uncritical support for the past eight years has been deeply unhealthy and has been neither in the interests of America nor the Middle East. Correcting it is central to the US improving its dire standing in the Arab world and gaining international credibility in general — two things his supporters crave. Instead he pandered, stating that ”Jerusalem will remain the capital of Israel and it must remain undivided”, promising not to withdraw from Iraq until the conditions on the ground were right.

Meanwhile, the economy continues its precipitous decline. Unemployment is increasing, the dollar is slumping and inflation remains high. Property prices are nosediving and fuel prices are skyrocketing. Each month more and more Americans find themselves at the precipice. One in 11 mortgages is either in arrears or foreclosure. More than one in six homeowners has negative equity or no equity in their house. By June, claims Moody’s (a prominent US corporate finance, banking and risk management firm), that will rise to one in four.

Yet Obama refuses to call for a moratorium, an interest rate freeze or substantial government spending, preferring instead a tax credit for homeowners that would amount to little more than about $500, beyond which only some borrowers could get more help. Over-represented among these sub-prime borrowers are the very African Americans who have propelled him to victory.

The great thing about Obama’s candidacy is that he has raised expectations about what Americans can be and do in a way that nobody else has or could in recent memory. Whether they develop into pressure or descend into cynicism is an open question. Will he be a vehicle for their hopes, or will they be a vehicle for his political ambition? The two are not mutually exclusive. But their connection is far from assured. —