While the world burns
First the good news. Few countries hit by the crisis now sweeping the global economy would not prefer to be in South Africa’s shoes.
The treasury continues to insist that growth this year will be relatively strong, between 3,7% and 3,8%.
But South Africa is not an island; it would be a serious mistake to think we can dodge the hurricane unscathed. We are interconnected with the world economy and the news emerging from major markets is uniformly depressing. Already key industries, such as platinum mining and engineering, are shedding jobs and moving to short time. We may be growing, but the job market officially contracted by 74 000 in the last quarter.
Given our skills shortage, skilled retrenchees can reasonably expect to find new jobs or set up their own small businesses. But everyone knows that if any country cannot afford to sustain job losses it is South Africa.
So what are our political leaders doing to prepare citizens for what lies ahead? They are furiously engaged in petty factional battles—attacking the prosecuting authorities in the name of Jacob Zuma, bringing court actions against rival parties and meeting the public broadcaster to complain about the camera angles used in covering political meetings.
Worldwide the rush is to cut interest rates—what are our plans? Internationally, deflation is considered a far more pressing threat than inflation, as consumers may stop buying because prices tomorrow will be cheaper than those today.
Other governments are looking at tax cuts as part of a fiscal stimulation package designed to stave off the worst effects of recession.
In South Africa the authorities are projecting that inflation will return to the target band by mid-2009, suggesting that there is scope for interest rate cuts next month and tax cuts in February. The Reserve Bank could do industry a favour by recognising the extraordinary conditions and moving more in line with world trends.
In general, because infighting dominates our political and economic landscape, the approach of government and the ruling party is one of business as usual.
The ruling party squabbles about whether policy is too left or not left enough and the degree to which Parliament should contribute to the budget-making process. Meanwhile, the world is burning—and the flames are getting closer.
The overlong arms of the spooks
If anyone still doubts that our intelligence services are not only extremely powerful but highly politicised, and prone to overreaching, our reporting this week on the bizarre network connecting senior officials at the National Intelligence Agency (NIA) to Brett Kebble murder-accused Glenn Agliotti and his shadowy circle should convince them.
It is already widely known that NIA Director General Manala Manzini played what can only be described as a grossly improper role in efforts to spare Jackie Selebi from being charged with corruption by the Scorpions.
In January, just as preparations were being made to charge Selebi, Agliotti drew up a rambling statement in which he denied bribing Selebi and claimed he was a pawn in a Scorpions campaign to bring Selebi down.
That document, which Agliotti later repudiated, saying he had been drunk at the time, was handed to Manzini at a late-night meeting and then faxed to Selebi’s advocate, who used it in the court bid to block the charges.
The groundwork for all this appears to have been laid by Manzini’s business associates, Tania Volschenk and Dennis Kekana. Agliotti has said Kekana ‘instructed” him to make the affidavit, and that it was typed up on Volschenk’s computer.
This week we reveal that Volschenk had long-standing ties with Manzini.
This raises renewed questions about how the secret meeting between a crucial state witness, Agliotti, and the head of the domestic spy service came about. Was the Agliotti statement an NIA project to try to save Selebi? Was Manzini on a frolic of his own, and if so, why has he not been compelled to resign?
What we do know is that the former intelligence minister, Ronnie Kasrils, was not informed of this most sensitive intervention. All the evidence points to yet another case of a top spy involving himself in political battles—apparently undeterred by the fallout from Billy Masetlha’s alleged abuse of NIA resources to advance the Jacob Zuma campaign.
The NIA’s broad political mandate unfortunately gives it ready excuses to involve itself in this kind of highly inappropriate activity—which should be illegal. One of the key recommendations of the ministerial review commission report into civilian spying agencies was that the NIA’s mandate should be restricted. The panel, appointed by Kasrils in the wake of the Masetlha imbroglio, has had its report suppressed by the NIA.
The Inspector General of Intelligence must conduct an open investigation into the Agliotti saga. And, based on the ministerial commission’s report, Parliament should conduct a thoroughgoing review of South Africa’s intelligence agencies urgently as a prelude to radical reform.
