Inflation up 8,6% in February, breaks declining trend
The increase in South Africa’s consumer price index (CPI), which is used by the South African Reserve Bank for its inflation target, was up 8,6% year-on-year in February from 8,1% year-on-year in January, Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) said on Wednesday.
This means that the declining trend has been broken.
CPI was up 1,2% month-on-month after increasing 0,4% in January.
The new consumer inflation index was expected to have remained unchanged at 8,1% year-on-year, according to a survey of leading economists by I-Net Bridge.
Forecasts among the nine leading economists surveyed for CPI ranged from 8,0% to 8,6%.
Stats SA said the food and non-alcoholic beverages index increased by 0,2% between January and February, taking the annual rate to 15,8% from 15,7% in January 2009. This monthly was largely driven by monthly increases in cold beverages (4,2%), other food (0,5%), meat (0,4%), sugar, sweets and desserts (0,3%) and fish (0,2%).
The alcoholic beverages and tobacco index increased by 1,1% between January and February 2009, largely driven by monthly increases in beer (1,5%) and tobacco products (1,2%), mainly cigarettes.
The health index increased by 6,2% between January and February 2009, driven by monthly increases in health services (10,0%), mainly doctors’ fees (which are surveyed annually).
The transport index increased by 1,8% between January and February 2009, mainly due to a 10,5% increase in the price of petrol.
Stats SA added that prices for miscellaneous goods and services increased by 3,7% between January and February, largely as a result of a monthly increase of 6,4% in insurance, mainly health insurance (which is surveyed annually).
Other categories showing above average annual increases were restaurants and hotels (13,4%), recreation and culture (9,7%) and housing and utilities (9,1%).
CPIX hit 11,3% in 2008 from 6,5% in 2007 and CPI struck 11,5% from 7,1% in 2007.
In July 2007 CPIX hit 6,5% from 6.4% in June, but then dipped to 6,3% in August before resuming an unbroken uptrend in September where it struck 6,7%.
Annual CPIX for 2007 was at 6,5% from the 4,6% in 2006, while annual CPI was at 7,1% from the 4,7% in 2006.
The core inflation rate, which excluded volatile foods, municipal rates and monetary policy changes, is no longer provided. That rate was 10.2% year-on-year in December. CPI reverted to a new basket and weights in January, with the CPIX becoming superfluous as CPI now includes owners’ equivalent rent.—I-Net Bridge
