The M&G election guide: ANC

Apr 21 2009 06:00

African National Congress

Jacob Gedleyihlekisa Zuma ANC president

Around this time last year the great debate was whether the ANC would persist in fielding Jacob Zuma as its presidential candidate. His recent controversial past, including a rape trial, possible trial for fraud and corruption and fears that he could be unpopular among women put the would-be candidate’s future in jeopardy.

But that’s all over now. In the past year the ANC has run an intense, well-calculated campaign that has seen Zuma introduced to overseas investors, heads of states, minority groups across the country and to the tens of thousands of ordinary South Africans who come to ANC rallies en masse.

The debate now is what kind of president he’ll make. Reading prepared speeches, peppered with verses of Umshini Wam, Zuma has shied away from controversial comments such as the ones previously made about gays, women wearing kangas and isolating teenage mothers.

With his election as ANC president and tendency to surround himself with radical individuals who harbour grudges against Mbeki, Zuma has still managed to solidify what’s left of the ANC. And it appears that the party will poll more than 60% of the vote in the election.

There continues to be uncertainty over what government policy will be followed under Zuma -- he’s tailored his pronouncements to meet everyone else’s expectations.

Fikile Mbalula Head of election campaign

The former president of the Youth League is running the ruling party’s election campaign machinery with an impressive efficiency that has left the opposition parties lagging far behind. He has been responsible for strategies that include dragging Nelson Mandela from retirement to endorse the party, crowding Cope events with big ANC rallies and publicly attacking Mbeki, who was seen as a rallying figure for Cope.

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The party strategy has included door-to-door visits by its most prominent politicians, television and radio adverts, massive billboards, weekly rallies that have drawn thousands and intensification and focus on areas where the party has low support.

Mbalula is known as the man who fought tooth and nail for Zuma’s victory over Mbeki at Polokwane. He is number 11 on the ANC candidate list and is earmarked for a senior position in government.

Plans and promises

The ANC government plans to reduce contact crimes by 7% to 10% a year. The party acknowledges that the level of crime is “unacceptably high” and promises to overhaul the system

M&G says: With the highest murder rate in the world, the 7% to 10% target has been the same for the past four years. It has still not been realised.

A publicly funded and administered national health insurance system is to be phased in over the next five years

M&G says: Great idea. But where will funding come from? Perhaps we should start with the dismal healthcare provided by our public hospitals.

An early childhood development system spanning public and private sectors will be supported with the ANC government employing 15 000 trainers every year

M&G says: The ANC government closed down teacher colleges, calling them an apartheid creation. So where are the 15 000 teachers going to come from?

Improve the access of the poor to quality education by ensuring that 60% of schools are no-fee, as part of the progressive introduction of free and compulsory basic education

M&G says: The roll-out of no–fee schools has been difficult. Schools often receive money late and have to fundraise as there isn’t money to cover all expenses.

Current land reforms, for example the land and agricultural reform programme, are in the process of being strengthened and expanded to create sustainable rural livelihoods on a mass scale

M&G says: Then deputy president Jacob Zuma was responsible for the rural and urban development nodes programme, which was announced with great fanfare in 2005. Zilch is the best word to describe the amount of progress made since then.

The ANC says it will work towards unity, democracy and prosperity of the Southern African Development Community and the African Union, agitating for a fairer and more humane international trade and financial system and a just world order

M&G says: Our foreign policy has been a disaster. Our turn as chair of the United Nations Security Council was used to block discussions of Zimbabwean and Burmese human rights issues. But worst of all was the recent Dalai Lama blunder.

Fiscal and monetary policy mandates, including management of interest rates and exchange rates, should promote creation of decent employment, economic growth, broad-based industrialisation, reduced income inequality and other developmental imperatives

M&G says: Under ANC rule income inequality has increased, unemployment has soared and employment is a preserve of a few.

The ANC aims to come up with a strong developmental state with able planning capacity and the ability to intervene in strategic areas; state-owned enterprises are considered fundamental to the ability to intervene

M&G says: The dangers of creating a nanny state in which citizens live on grants always exists. But more concerning is the commitment to a developmental state when state enterprises such as SAA have become bottom-less pits, bailed out to the tune of hundreds of millions of taxpayer rands over the past few years.

Thirty percent land reform by 2014

M&G says: In the past 15 years only 5.5% of land reform -- the transfer of land to black hands -- has been completed; activists say that at the current pace there is no way there will be 30% land reform by 2014.

For the track record
We tally up the ANC government’s big wins -- and losses -- since the last round of election promises

Economic growth in South Africa consistently exceeded the 3% average in the first decade of freedom under an ANC government. Since 2004 the growth rate had passed that marker every year -- making it the first time in South Africa's history that there have been four successive years of GDP growth above 4.5%.

Impressive. But consider, too, that much of the rest of the world’s developing economies were performing much the same until the collapse of the global markets.

What’s most disappointing about our performance is that the growth was not accompanied by the creation of employment, which remains a key challenge.

Black ownership as a whole remains low with a recent survey putting black ownership of the economy at about 12% -- certainly an improvement from 1994 but clearly inadequate.

Since March 2003 the rate of unemployment has fallen from 31.2% to 25.5% in March 2007. Yet this figure is correct only when we use the broader definition of employment, which includes informal trading. Labour analysts say a narrower definition would find that unemployment sits at 40%.

Meanwhile, basic service use has increased. The proportion of households that use electricity went from 56% in 1996 to 80% in 2007; those who have access to piped water in their homes or on site increased from 61% in 1996 to 70% in 2007. Households with access to flush toilets increased from 52% in 1996 to 60.4% in 2007, whereas the number of those living in formal dwellings barely inched up from 69% in 1996 to 71% in 2007.

There was a decrease in a number of crime categories, especially contact crimes such as murder, rape, assault and robbery with aggravating circumstances. But truck hijackings, business and home robberies, indecent assault and arson have increased.

The government's plan to combat HIV-Aids continues to be implemented, informed by an updated national comprehensive strategy. Patients on antiretrovirals now exceed 300 000. Still, when talking HIV and Aids in South Africa, it’s impossible not to mention that many thousands of lives might have been saved had former president Thabo Mbeki and his Cabinet not prevaricated at crucial times before succumbing to civil society pressure and finally introducing the comprehensive strategy.

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The M&G election guide: ANC

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