/ 7 January 2011

Zuma will beat the new growth path

Zuma Will Beat The New Growth Path

President Jacob Zuma is expected to lay down the law in the debate about the new growth path (NGP) by insisting that, despite widespread criticism, the government is committed to this new economic strategy because it will create jobs.

Zuma is due to make the ANC’s annual January 8 statement at the party’s birthday celebrations on Saturday. It sets out the party’s priorities for the year.

ANC insiders who were privy to the speech said that Zuma would hail the past year as a success in achieving the goals the party set for itself — except for job creation.

“He will focus on the new growth path to ensure that everyone rallies around it. For him 2011 must have a strong job-creation focus,” a source who helped to write the speech said.

This week Luthuli House was a flurry of activity as the statement was sent to leaders and officials for input and comment. The statement was finalised on Thursday after it had been approved by ANC leaders.

According to the source, Zuma did an assessment of 2010 in preparation for his speech on Saturday and was particularly irked by the fact that the numbers showed no progress in job creation — instead they showed a significant decline.

The source said Zuma was aware that the NGP had drawn intense criticism from Cosatu and that his unequivocal support for the strategy would bring him into conflict with the trade union federation.

“Of course the president knows about Cosatu’s cool response to the plan but, given the gravity of the unemployment problem, he has no choice but to go the route of the NGP. But there is no quick fix. Everyone wants to prevail in this debate.”

Criticism
The NGP was presented by Ebrahim Patel, the Economic Development Minister, but was roundly criticised by trade unions for being too much like the previous growth, employment and redistribution plan and by business as too interventionist because it aims to cap private sector bonuses.

“The relationship between the ANC and Cosatu is not one of conformity and is the terrain for rough policy debates. So this is another one like that,” the source said.

Another source said Zuma would have to do a balancing act and emphasise the importance of the alliance, following the fallout between Cosatu and the ANC over a civil society conference convened by Cosatu last year.

In the light of Cosatu’s key role in campaigning for the ANC during municipal elections, Zuma would have to ensure that the trade unions were kept on board.

He is expected to focus on the need for the alliance structures to function better and to manage relations better, following the many public spats that took place last year.

“The alliance structures should be more active in order for us to manage our relations better. There should be more meetings of the secretariat where issues can be raised,” a Luthuli House source who saw the statement said.

Zuma is expected to remind ANC members that without Cosatu’s help South Africa would not have attained freedom when it did.

Municipal elections
The source said that the municipal elections, due to take place in the first half of 2011, would also be a key aspect of the statement.

Zuma is expected to promise better service delivery to counter the rise in service delivery protests, which are expected to resurface before the elections.

Although surveys commissioned by the ruling party show the ANC will not be able to claw back many municipalities from the Democratic Alliance in the Western Cape, in the rest of the country it should be relatively plain sailing.

The party is expected to make significant gains in KwaZulu-Natal where the internal problems in the Inkatha Freedom Party will deliver some key municipalities to the ANC. But the ANC has struggled to finalise its municipal election strategy, with some insiders criticising the original strategy for simply recycling old promises.

According to Jackson Mthembu, the party spokesperson, this year, for the first time, the ANC will expect prospective candidates for municipal councils to face the communities they want to serve at open meetings where voters can express their views about the candidates. “The popularity of the candidates will be tested with the voters.”

A committee of alliance members will look at the track records of prospective councillors and check that they don’t have criminal records.

“We must get candidates that people know,” Mthembu said.

The succession debate will not feature in the January 8 statement, as the party wants to keep discussions about it to a minimum. But Zuma is expected to reiterate the stance he took at the Durban national general council in September and underscore the party’s policy of zero tolerance of ill discipline and disruptive behaviour.

In dealing with the issues raised in his speech, Zuma will have to prove his seriousness to the ANC Youth League structures, which have scheduled provincial gatherings to prepare for the national conference due to take place this year.

Its firebrand president, Julius Malema, is expected to be challenged by his current deputy, Andile Lungisa, although other candidates are also expected to emerge, which will create the conditions for a repeat of the chaotic conference at which Malema was elected.

The pattern was repeated during the gatherings of other structures of the ANC and the alliance, which were marred by violence. The most recent was the elective conference of the Young Communist League.

This year Zuma will also have to decide on the way forward for state-owned enterprises and black economic empowerment after the commissions he appointed to investigate them have presented their recommendations.

President’s 2011 to-do list

  • Finalise policy on black economic empowerment;
  • Secure victories in municipal elections;
  • Make a decision about the future of state-owned enterprises;
  • Create a register of the financial interests of leaders;
  • Keep a close eye on the ANC Youth League conference;
  • Make sure the Chinese keep their promises;
  • Prepare for COP17 in Durban;
  • Do performance evaluations of ministers;
  • Settle the debate over labour brokers; and
  • Fix the problems in the alliance.