/ 17 January 2017

World Economic Forum meeting in Davos takes place at turbulent moment

A protestor throws a molotov cocktail at riot police in the centre of Kiev
A protestor throws a molotov cocktail at riot police in the centre of Kiev

NEWS ANALYSIS

The World Economic Forum begins in Davos today (January 17). This year’s session, on the theme of responsible and responsive leadership, will focus on how best to address the “growing frustration and discontent increasing in segments of society that are not experiencing economic development and social progress”.

Last year is widely seen as underlining this anguish with a growing anti-establishment, anti-globalisation mood across much of the world – to the alarm of many in the political and business communities who attend Davos. Cases in point last year included the rejection of Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s constitutional referendum, the election of Donald Trump as United States president and the United Kingdom voting to leave the European Union (known as Brexit).

Although 2016 now seems a potentially defining historic moment to some, the fact is that unusually high political turbulence has been a feature of politics for much of the last decade – at least since the international financial crisis commenced in 2008. For instance, many governments in the industrialised world have been voted out of office, in part, because of economic downturn and austerity measures.

In Europe alone, millions took to the streets and administrations in more than half of the 27 EU states fell or were voted out of office from 2010 to 2012 alone. In the core eurozone, 11 of 14 governments collapsed or lost elections during those same two years.

Another notable feature of protest in the developed world has been the so-called occupy movement, which came to international prominence in Wall Street in 2011 with its campaign against social and economic inequality. The occupy demonstrations spread to about 1 000 cities and more than 80 countries on all continents of the world.

This is, however, just one feature of a range of exceptional economic and political fragility and uncertainty worldwide in the last decade. For there have also been eye-catching political revolutions, popular uprisings and protests in emerging markets too.

This includes the so-called Arab Spring, which began in Tunisia some six years ago and subsequently spread to include revolutionary changes of power in Egypt and Libya, transfer of power in Yemen, plus demonstrations and uprisings in countries as disparate as Algeria, Bahrain, Jordan, Morocco and Oman.

There was also the Ukrainian revolution of 2014, which led to the ousting of pro-Moscow President Victor Yanukovych, the Brazilian demonstrations of 2013 – the largest in the country for some two decades – and the 2011 Azerbaijani protests against the government.

This range of political disruption has reportedly been described as “a revolutionary wave, like 1848” by Sir Nigel Inkster, former director of operations for the UK Secret Intelligence Service. Others have compared the situation to 1914, 1968 and 1989.

Whatever the validity of these historical analogies, it is clear that there are some genuinely new factors to the post-2008 period, including the role of social media and other technologies. Moreover, this “wave” of political instability has diverse origins with economic issues not being the only driver.

Thus, unrest in the Arab world has often stemmed from deep-seated political and socioeconomic discontent that predates the financial crisis. Post-2008 factors including liquidity crunches, increased food prices and unemployment spikes have exacerbated these longer-standing grievances.

In Europe, the role of economic downturn and austerity has been central to unrest in numerous countries, especially those most affected by the eurozone crisis. Even here though, unrest has tapped into pre-existing disquiet with established political parties, hence the meteoric rise of new groups such as Syriza in Greece.

A key question is whether overall political instability will now tail off, especially if economic growth accelerates and sustains itself in much of the world in coming years. Although this is possible, there are at least three sets of factors that will continue to fuel protest in some countries.

First, economic inequality has grown in many countries and has become increasingly politically salient. This was underlined by Trump’s victory where he tapped into popular anger, especially from discontented working-class voters angry on multiple fronts, including increases in income inequality since 1980.

Second, even if the worst of the financial crisis has now passed, its consequences endure, especially for the young. People aged 15 to 24 constitute less than 20% of the global population, but about double the percentage of the unemployed. This puts many at risk of long-term damage to earnings potential and job prospects, fuelling discontent.

Youth unemployment in numerous countries in the Arab world is above 50%. In the Middle East, the problem is acute because it has the world’s biggest youth bulge comprising increasing numbers of educated people.

Moreover, more than five million (about 20%) people in the EU aged 15 to 24 are unable to find work because career opportunity structures have been swept away for too many. This has given rise to concern, including from German Chancellor Angela Merkel about a “lost generation”, especially in Greece and Spain where youth unemployment has been more than 50%.

Third, there are drivers of political unrest that will endure. This includes the disruptive role of social media.

There remains debate about how instrumental social media has been in fomenting political instability. Whether one sees it as an essential component that translated discontent into concrete action or an accentuation of what was already inevitable, indisputably it has played an enabling, mobilising role that may only grow as technology advances and proliferates.

Taken overall, there remains significant prospect of political unrest around the world in 2017 and beyond. Although circumstances will vary from country to country, instability will potentially be fuelled not just by economic inequality and legacy of the financial crisis but also longer-standing political and socioeconomic discontent, which social media is giving fresh impetus to.

Andrew Hammond is an associate at the London School of Economics