Zimbabwe’s embattled President Robert Mugabe this week swore in a new team of ministers who he referred to as an “economic and political war Cabinet”.
Observers have been surprised by how few changes he made.
Mugabe had been expected to use a reshuffle to get rid of a number of controversial and unpopular ministers. He was also thought likely to give at least the impression of a rejuvenated government in the face of economic problems, famine and diplomatic isolation.
The only notable — though widely anticipated — change was the dropping of his Finance Minister, Simba Makoni, often touted as his potential successor. Minister of Health Timothy Stamps, the only white in the Cabinet, was replaced by his deputy, David Parirenyatwa. But Stamps had been ill for some time — like the country’s health services — and Parirenyatwa had been the de facto minister.
Makoni, although respected and free of scandal, failed to convince Mugabe to adopt any of his suggestions, which included currency devaluation.
Recently, Mugabe referred to those advocating devaluation of the Zimbabwe dollar as “saboteurs”. This was clearly a dig at Makoni — an indication that his position was becoming untenable.
The sacking of Makoni was accompanied by the re-engagement of former minister Witness Mangwende — as Transport Minister. Unlike Makoni, Mangwende is known for his taste for the good life and for being a Mugabe loyalist.
Yet Zanu-PF has brilliant people to call on. That Mugabe has not given these people ministries indicates that, for him, loyalty is more important than problem-solving ability.
Mugabe’s circle has grown paranoid about who might be sympathetic to the opposition Movement for Democratic Change. He has instituted purges in his party and the civil service to try to get rid of them. He wants within his circle only those willing to say that a Western conspiracy explains Zimbabwe’s travails.
Jonathan Moyo, Mugabe’s propaganda chief and one of his closest confidants, is an unlikely ally. He was once one of Mugabe’s sharpest critics. When recruited by Mugabe he was dogged by allegations of financial impropriety by the Ford Foundation, for which he had worked in Kenya, and by the University of the Witwatersrand, where he also did a stint.
These charges have not been resolved. For as long as Moyo is a minister in Mugabe’s government he can expect to remain beyond the reach of his accusers.
Mugabe’s Cabinet also excludes any individuals with political power bases of their own. Legal Affairs Minister Patrick Chinamasa and Land Minister Joseph Made, who have rammed through land reforms, and the equally unpopular Moyo, are all appointed MPs with no power base. They owe their prominence solely to Mugabe.
A new land-tenure pattern — different from the colonial one and better reflecting the country’s demographics — is supported by all black Zimbabweans and many whites. A well thought-out and fully funded programme, however, could not have satisfied Mugabe’s need for something quick and dramatic to save him at the last election.
Mugabe’s forcible farm seizures now guarantee serious economic hardship. Prospective farmers allocated previously white-owned land do not have the resources even to make a start. Government attempts to provide free tilling services, seed and other support will make little difference.
Zimbabwe’s northern neighbours appear unimpressed by Mugabe’s destruction of his country’s economy in the name of correcting colonial imbalances. Though these countries coyly avoid suggestions that they are welcoming white former Zimbabwean farmers, they are quietly accommodating them. The official stance of some neighbouring states may be resistance to Western imperialism and neo-colonialsm, but they need Western support more than Mugabe’s posturing. Privately, they are dealing with the West. Under pressure, they will drop Mugabe.
Mugabe is feeling the chill of isolation, even from his African brothers, and recently lamented it.
Many black South Africans support Mugabe’s rhetoric and actions because of the vicarious satisfaction they derive from it. But this will not last, as they realise that blacks cannot catch up with whites economically simply by decree.
South Africans will also become less enamoured of Mugabe as the number of makwerekweres (foreigners) seeking economic refuge rises. Moreover, Mbeki’s dream of a Western-funded African recovery will also likely expire because of events in Zimbabwe and his inadequate response to them.
In that sense Mugabe’s Cabinet reshuffle, though a non-event, will accelerate Zimbabwe’ s implosion with far-reaching implications for the region.
Chido Makunike is a freelance Zimbabwean journalist