South Africa’s annual retail-sales growth eased in October from a record high the month before, reducing pressure for more interest-rate hikes in 2007. Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) data on Wednesday showed year-on-year retail sales at constant prices rose by 8,8% in October, easing from a revised 13,5% in the year to September.
Consumer demand has been the main driver of growth in Africa’s biggest economy over the past couple of years. It has also added to inflationary pressures and helped prompt an upward cycle in rates.
South African consumers have so far rebuffed central bank warnings to curb spending — with credit demand and debt soaring to record levels — despite tighter monetary policy.
The Reserve Bank has hiked its repo rate by two percentage points since June to 9%, with the latest rise last week, and another increase possible in February.
Analysts said the slower growth in sales indicated that consumers may be curbing spending following the rate hikes, although the number remained high.
”There is some softening in consumer demand and perhaps it is beginning to be indicative of the impact of tightening in monetary policy, amongst other things,” Mandla Maleka, economist at electricity utility Eskom, said.
”If the trend maintains its downward direction in the two months remaining, November and December, perhaps it does signal that we might not see a rate hike in February.”
The central bank’s monetary policy committee meets every two months with the next decision on rates expected on February 15.
Still too high
Stats SA said retail sales rose by 10,3% in the three months to the end of October compared with the same period last year, also at constant prices.
South Africa’s economy has held up well given the rise in rates in 2006, with gross domestic product growth holding at about 5%. But debt levels are a concern for the central bank.
Household debt jumped to a record 73% of disposable income in the third quarter, while credit growth soared to 27,48% year-on-year in October — also an all-time high.
There are some signs of spending abating, however, with new-vehicle sales growth easing over the past two months.
Brait economist Colen Garrow said people appeared to be responding to the higher rates, which should be a positive for the central bank, but added that sales were still too high.
”The outlook for the sector will remain positive because we have large numbers of emerging consumers coming in, and real disposable income levels are still very strong … South Africans are still spending like there is no tomorrow,” he said. — Reuters