The killing of one of his key Iraqi allies on the day he announced a troop pull-out from Iraq came as a stark reminder to United States President George Bush of just how precarious the situation still is in Iraq.
Political analysts believe the country will unravel even further, hastened by Bush’s decision to withdraw 21 500 combat troops by next July.
The withdrawal, they warn, is likely to reinforce the power struggle between the country’s political factions, sectarian militia and ethnic groups.
”I think the civil war will start. It will escalate,” said Joost Hiltermann, Middle East director of the independent think-tank International Crisis Group.
The assassination on Thursday of Sheikh Abdul Sattar Abu Reesha in Iraq’s western Anbar province exposed the perilous situation in Iraq, despite frequent assurances by the US military that matters are improving.
The murder of the sheikh who shook hands with Bush 10 days earlier also showed how little Washington can do to protect its allies.
It was timed to send shockwaves, just a few hours before Bush went on national television to announce the first stages of the troop withdrawal, due to begin before the end of this month.
The decision, which only partially satisfied Bush’s opponents in Congress who want a far speedier retreat, is limited but still carries risks.
”The surge has managed to control the civil war,” Hiltermann told Agence France-Presse, referring to the extra 28 500 US troops deployed in Iraq since February in a bid to quell the sectarian fighting that has killed thousands of Iraqis.
For Hiltermann, there is no doubt that Iraq will slide into civil war if a total withdrawal of American forces begins.
”It will be Shi’ite-Sunni, it will be inter-Shi’ite and it will be Arab-Kurd,” he predicted.
In an indication of the political tensions prevailing despite the efforts of the Americans, Iraq’s northern Kurdish administration, an ally of Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, has demanded the oil minister be sacked for ”meddling” in regional affairs.
”The Iraq government has not utilised the time given by the surge,” said Hiltermann. ”Even the Bush administration has no political strategy [for Iraq].”
‘He has covered all the bases’
Analyst Said Abu Rish, author of a number of books on Iraq, believes that reconciliation in Iraq cannot take place within the shadow of a US occupation.
The assassination of Sheikh Abu Reesha and the announcement of the beginning of the US troop withdrawal, leave Iraq’s political scenario even more uncertain and the country even more at risk, he contends.
”The troop reduction will endanger the government and to stay in office it may have to field its own militias or death squads,” Abu Rish told AFP.
”Sunnis must have one identifiable leader otherwise divided between many they will lose,” he added, stressing, however, that Sunnis are indispensable to the running of Iraq.
At the same time, he believes, the main beneficiary of a US troop withdrawal will be radical cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, head of the country’s most powerful Shi’ite militia.
”Sadr will benefit from any withdrawal. He has covered all the bases –the Shi’ites, the anti-Americans, the unity of the country, good relations with Iran, the biggest militia,” said Abu Rish.
A vision of an increasingly fractured Iraq is shared by another Iraq specialist, Adel Darwish, a well-known Middle East columnist.
”The anti-American forces within Iraq, especially Iran and the Iran-backed militia among the Shi’ites, do understand the domestic pressures President Bush is facing and will try to exploit it to the full,” he said.
For him, the Iraqi government will gravitate more and more towards Sadr, a long-time foe of the Americans but who recently called a six-month halt to his militia activities.
”Maliki is likely to strike a deal with Moqtada if it becomes clear to him that the Americans are going home and he will be left at the mercy of the Iranian-backed militia,” said Darwish.
At the same time, the Americans are pushing for Maliki to secure a political reconciliation that will include the Sunni minority.
”The Americans’ smart card would be to tell Maliki either Sunnis share power or he will be left on his own. But will the Americans have the guts and be clever enough to outsmart Maliki?” asked Darwish. — Sapa-AFP