Less than a week after Kenyan President Mwai Kibaki unveiled his new party and embarked on a rigorous re-election campaign, the National Security Intelligence Service has leaked a damaging report, suggesting the president is headed for a resounding defeat in six out of the country’s eight provinces in the national polls set for December.
The report says that, despite Kibaki’s positive performance on the economic front and his provision of free primary education, public sentiment is against him standing for a second term because of what is seen as his failure to pursue individuals guilty of corruption.
The security report contradicts international opinion polls of the past four years, which had until July consistently placed Kibaki ahead of other presidential hopefuls, even before he announced his intention to seek a second and final term.
The report, commissioned by the state to gauge public sentiment before Kibaki formally launches his campaign on September 29, was published on Tuesday by a local daily newspaper. It showed that the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) led by Raila Odinga enjoys a significant lead in Nyanza province with 86% of the vote, in Rift Valley province with 70%, North Eastern province with 67%, Coast province with 64%, Nairobi 56% and Western province with 54%.
Kibaki has Central province, his home turf, and Eastern province under his belt, leading by 98% and 70% respectively.
The report’s findings have created panic in his camp. Last week Kibaki and his supporters were forced to delay by a day the start of ”an official working tour” of Western province, an opposition stronghold, to unveil his hurriedly created new coalition — the Party of National Unity.
Until recently the president’s campaign had been hamstrung by a decision by ruling party member and Health Minister Charity Ngilu’s refusal to allow the president to run on the National Rainbow Coalition platform, which propelled him to power in 2002.
In protest against entrenched ethnicity and corruption in the government, Ngilu declined to allow Kibaki to use the coalition as his re-election vehicle. The president’s defection from the coalition has since precipitated a near-constitutional crisis as Parliament has not been dissolved to pave the way for fresh realignments.
ODM-Kenya presidential candidate Kalonzo Musyoka — who fell out with Odinga last month and created a splinter party — criticised Kibaki for breaching the Constitution by defecting from the party that brought him to power and sweet-talking the opposition chief into backing his re-election.
The leader of the official opposition, Uhuru Kenyatta, the constitutional head of the shadow government, has opted to support Kibaki, reportedly on the understanding that Kibaki will back him in a presidential bid in 2012. Kenyatta is the son of Kenya’s founding president, Jomo Kenyatta.
Musyoka, a lawyer and MP, said that Kenyatta’s decision to step down for Kibaki technically means that until Parliament is dissolved and an election date set, the House will be without opposition.
”The president is under obligation to dissolve the House and call elections. He and Uhuru have breached the Constitution,” Musyoka said.