Zuma holds key to Motlanthe's future

The only way Kgalema Motlanthe can continue as South Africa’s president after the 2009 elections is if African National Congress (ANC) president Jacob Zuma agrees.

Motlanthe was hurriedly sworn in as president last week after the ANC’s top leadership sacked president Thabo Mbeki in the wake of KwaZulu-Natal Judge Chris Nicholson’s explosive ruling.

Zuma’s backing for Motlanthe as the country’s caretaker leader surprised his supporters, as the latter seems best placed to challenge for the presidency in the long term.

But widespread hopes that Motlanthe could continue in office after the election, using the next seven months to build his profile and support base in the ANC, are certain to be dashed.

The stumbling block is a resolution on the presidency taken at the ANC’s conference in Polokwane. This declares that the ANC president must be the party’s presidential candidate—guaranteeing Zuma’s accession to the top government job.

It states: “At national government level, conference agrees that the ANC president shall be the candidate of the movement for president of the republic.”

Most ANC leaders agree that the modest, consultative and clear-headed Motlanthe is likely to boost his popularity among ordinary South Africans and ANC members during his tenure.

They see it, however, as part of the ANC’s strategy to provide Zuma with a “clean slate” when he takes over the presidency next year.

Said one national executive committee member and MP: “If Kgalema does well in terms of service delivery, he is not doing it for himself. JZ will be taking the credit for whatever success Kgalema has had in terms of service delivery.

“That is precisely why Kgalema has been given this responsibility—he is trusted to do a good job.”

Another ANC insider said that the party and Zuma were well aware that if Motlanthe does “even vaguely well”, some in the ANC and the broader public will want him to continue after the elections.

“The balance of power has definitely shifted Kgalema’s way. If he consults widely, as he is known to do, and works within the alliance, he will definitely increase his popularity.”

Some in the party also pointed to the “axis of power” between Motlanthe and ANC secretary general Gwede Mantashe, which will work in Motlanthe’s favour.

The two leaders work well together, sharing the belief that the stability of the party and the country should be the principal concern of ANC leaders.

Both initially opposed the sacking of Mbeki, although Mantashe’s stance is said to have hardened after Mbeki’s decision to appeal against the Nicholson judgement.

Another national executive committee member and government official revealed that there was some discussion within the party about “keeping Kgalema there after the elections”.

But he said: “The people who’ve supported Zuma through everything will not wake up one morning and say: ‘It’s fine, we’ll take Motlanthe.’ That will be up to Zuma himself; if he says that he doesn’t want the job, things might change.

“But I can assure you he’s nowhere near that.”