Pressure is mounting in the ANC for President Jacob Zuma to step down as ANC leader once his term ends in 2012 and make way for new leadership.
One government official told the Mail & Guardian that planning is already under way in the ruling party and the government for the post-2012 scenario and that Zuma is not expected to return as ANC leader.
“It’s almost certain that he won’t make it to a second term. He’s damaged goods — so we have to look beyond him.”
‘Time for a new leader’
Another government official and ANC Youth League leader confirmed that moves are afoot in the ANC’s youth and women’s wings to “ask JZ to not avail himself for a second term”.
“We think it’s time for a new leader. JZ did what he was meant to do — get rid of Mbeki — now he must make room for others. He isn’t strong enough to fight the communists and the unions and he wants to make everyone happy, while we need a decisive leader,” said the official.
The M&G understands that the lobby group working to install Deputy Police Minister Fikile Mbalula as the next ANC secretary general sees Deputy President Kgalema Motlanthe as the party’s next president, with Human Settlements Minister Tokyo Sexwale as his deputy and Defence Minister Lindiwe Sisulu as chairperson.
Informed circles see Motlanthe as Zuma’s successor because of the ANC tradition of elevating the deputy president to the top job.
Although most ANC leaders believe Mbalula will be the party’s next secretary general, those aligned with Cosatu and the South African Communist Party will continue to back the incumbent, Gwede Mantashe.
The real battle is shaping up for the deputy presidency, which will prepare the incumbent to take on the top job after the following elective conference, in 2016.
In addition to Sexwale, Sisulu and ANC chairperson Baleka Mbete are seen as contenders for the post and are expected use the ANC’s gender equity policy to push their candidacy.
But some see Sisulu as the frontrunner because of her active role in government and the party.
N2 Gateway debacle
She is said to be livid about the perceived campaign by Sexwale to tarnish her image and queer her pitch by highlighting the failures of the national housing programme, formerly her responsibility.
Cape Town’s disastrous N2 Gateway project has been blamed on Sisulu, whereas she sees the failures as the deformed fruit of political infighting in the Western Cape.
Those close to Sisulu say she is particularly aggrieved by Sexwale’s public campaign to bulldoze and rebuild 40Â 000 shoddily built houses, regarding it as designed to smear her ministry.
Sexwale is seen to be propping up Mbete, who is the most senior woman in the ANC. Mbete’s short stint as deputy president under Motlanthe in 2008 is also believed to be an advantage.
In his presidential bid at the ANC’s Polokwane conference in 2007, Sexwale’s relationship with Sisulu appeared to be strong enough for her to feature in his “top six” Âleadership list. Sources close to Sexwale said the relationship started to sour when he joined the Zuma camp and unseated Sisulu as Âhousing minister.
“Once Tokyo came in with a bit of support [that helped Zuma clinch the ANC presidency at Polokwane] and a lot of money to buy whisky for delegates, she started feeling threatened,” said a close friend of Sexwale.
But Sisulu is convinced that Sexwale is positioning himself as the next president and is seeking to neutralise other potential contenders.
Mbalula has not escaped criticism, with some senior leaders complaining that he plays the power game too publicly.
The ANC has only itself to blame, these leaders said, because it gave Mbalula the platform to market himself when he became national organiser in charge of the party’s election campaign last year.
“The command was no longer with the secretary general [during the election campaign]. Everyone was reporting to Mbalula,” said a close confidant of Mbalula’s.
“You can’t take it away from Fikile — he secured another term for the ANC government,” said a national executive committee member and senior government official.