Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe’s neighbours appear to be losing patience with his dogged refusal to reform, but it may be too early to tell whether the region is finally ready to take on its oldest and most incorrigible national leader.
A meeting of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) troika in Livingstone, Zambia, last week criticised the ongoing intimidation in Zimbabwe and checked Mugabe’s drive for early elections by demanding more reform. It decided that a new SADC team would be sent in to speed up President Jacob Zuma’s facilitation.
But whether this marks a clean break with a past of appeasement, or is little more than a passing tiff among friends, will be clear if Zanu-PF carries out its threat not to cooperate with the new SADC team.
There is also doubt whether the rebuke by the troika — made up of Mozambique, Zambia and South Africa — can translate into full-blown pressure by the broader SADC, which remains divided over how to treat Mugabe, still a revered struggle icon for many.
Not used to being scolded by leaders he considers his juniors, Mugabe lashed out. Some of his backers even suggested that Zimbabwe should pull out of SADC while there were personal attacks in the media on Zuma.
Mugabe told a meeting of his central committee that he would not take instructions from Zuma or anyone else. “A facilitator is a facilitator and should facilitate dialogue between Zimbabweans by way of persuasion. He cannot prescribe that we do A, B, C, D. We are a sovereign state and we don’t accept any interference. Not even our neighbours should tell us what to do,” he snapped.
‘Zuma’s erratic behaviour’
The Sunday Mail, which usually reflects the views of the more hardline elements in Zanu-PF, published a stinging editorial saying Zuma’s “erratic behaviour is the stuff of legends”, mocking “his belief that a post-coital shower offers protection from HIV” and calling him “primitive”. The editorial angered South African diplomats and Zuma’s office issued a statement saying Zimbabwe ought to use “the right channels” to air its views.
For Zanu-PF Livingstone was “one of the worst SADC meetings in recent years”, said Jonathan Moyo, who has re-emerged as a key strategist for Mugabe.
It is claimed that Zuma’s report to SADC was kept from the Zimbabwe delegation and that Mugabe and his group arrived in Livingstone early, only to be made to wait for eight hours for the meeting to start.
Mugabe was also allegedly angered after Zuma’s team invited both Movement for Democratic Change factions to a meeting on the eve of the summit, from which Zanu-PF was excluded.
Moyo warned that the SADC team, which he called “a bunch of regime-change spies”, would “need diplomatic and other facilitation by Zimbabwe to be able to work in our country, but this won’t happen”.
The SADC team did arrive on Wednesday but could not hold meaningful meetings with Zimbabwean parties, which were themselves meeting about a road map for elections.
While remaining firm against the troika’s approach, Zanu-PF was, on Wednesday, mending fences with Zuma, demonstrating that Mugabe still acknowledges the need to keep regional alliances intact. His spokesperson, George Charamba, said the Sunday Mail editorial did not reflect government policy, just as comment on the SABC did not reflect Zuma’s views.
An earlier report, apparently written by Charamba, suggested it was time that Zimbabwe considered “a none but ourselves stance” but on Wednesday he said: “Zimbabwe finds neither the reason nor the wish to rescind its membership [of SADC].” But he complained that “the tact of former President [Thabo] Mbeki” was clearly missed in the troika’s new “high-handed, intrusive” handling of Zimbabwe.
For the MDC, weeks of diplomacy had paid off. Before the summit MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai had visited Mugabe’s traditional regional allies, convincing them that the Zimbabwean president was leading the country and the region back to a 2008 stalemate, when regional leaders were forced to attend a string of meetings on the crisis there.
Welshman Ncube, who, as one of the key negotiators, attended many of those SADC meetings, sensed a shift in Livingstone. “I have attended several SADC meetings as an MDC negotiator but I can tell you that last week’s troika meeting meant serious business.”
Mugabe’s strong reaction to the SADC outcome, he said, was more about reassuring his supporters than a sign that he would defy the region. “Zanu-PF knows that if Mugabe loses the protection of SADC he is finished,” he said. But Mugabe may exploit regional differences over Zimbabwe. Botswana, Tanzania and Zambia are said to be strongly opposed to Mugabe, but he still enjoys the full backing of Namibia, Angola and the Democratic Republic of Congo. And while Mozambique, a long-time ally, might also be growing impatient it is reluctant to support Tsvangirai.