/ 6 May 2013

Economic week ahead: Chinese data to dominate

With the dollar under pressure
With the dollar under pressure

North America
The US economic calendar is light this week, with consumer credit, weekly jobless claims and wholesale inventories figures the only noteworthy releases on tap.

Consensus is that Tuesday's consumer credit data will show that credit rose by $15-billion in March, down from an $18.1-billion surge in the previous month.

February's jump, driven largely by a significant gain in student loans, was the largest monthly increase in credit in almost 13 years.

Attention will turn to initial jobless claims and wholesale inventories data on Thursday. Jobless claims fell by 18 000 to 324 000  in the week ended April 27, a new recovery low. Economists expect this week's claims to climb to 335 000.

Markets expect Thursday's wholesale inventories figures to show that inventories rose 0.4% in March, following a 0.3% decline in February.

Economists monitor activity at the wholesale level as an indicator of consumer trends.

Beyond these economic data releases, investors will focus on a few of the remaining corporate earnings reports scheduled for the week ahead.

Disney and News Corp. are the big names of the week.

Analysts expect Disney to report earnings per share (EPS) of 76 cents on revenue of $10.5-billion for the second quarter of its 2013 fiscal year, up from 58 cents per share on revenue of $9.6-billion in the same period last year.

News Corp. is expected to report EPS of 36 cents on revenue of $9.1-billion for the third quarter of its 2013 fiscal year, compared with 37 cents per share on revenue of $8.4-billion last year.

Europe
On Monday, the Eurozone's composite and services sector purchasing managers' indices (PMIs) are likely to continue to point to continuing economic trouble for the continent.

Economists expect both measures to remain below the 50-mark separating expansion from contraction.

On Wednesday, Queen Elizabeth II will deliver her annual speech to parliament, setting out the coalition government's legislative programme, and German officials will release March's industrial output numbers.

Markets expect that, on a monthly basis, Europe's largest economy and manufacturing powerhouse posted zero growth in output in March, following a stronger than expected 0.5% growth in February.

On Thursday, attention will turn to the Bank of England's monetary policy committee.

Following last week's news that the UK's services sector grew at its strongest pace in eight months last month, officials are widely expected to leave the bank's base rate on hold at 0.5% and maintain the size of the bank's quantitative easing programme at £375-million.

On Friday, G7 finance ministers and central bank governors will gather in London for two-days of meetings that will focus on means of combatting tax evasion.

Asia
Chinese trade, inflation, money supply and lending data will take centre stage in Asia this week. Markets expect Wednesday's trade data to show that exports rose 14.8% and imports rose 15.5%, year on year, in April.

As a result, the country's trade balance is expected to have risen to a $23-billion surplus last month, following March's surprise $884-million deficit.

On Thursday, attention will shift to China's latest consumer and producer inflation figures.

Markets expect both sets of numbers to paint a tame inflation picture for the world's second largest economy.

Economists expect April's consumer price index (CPI) data to show that consumer prices rose 2.3% from a year earlier, only slightly higher than the 2.1% recorded in March and well below the government's 4.0% comfort level.

Last month, prices at the factory gate fell about 2.0% from a year earlier, slightly more than the 1.9% fall witnessed in the previous month.

On Friday, consensus is that year on year M2 money supply growth slowed slightly to 15.5% growth in April from 15.7% in March. New yuan lendIng likely fell from 1.1-trillion yuan to 768-billion yuan during the same period.

Elsewhere in the region, the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its latest rates decision on Tuesday. Most economists believe that the Reserve Bank of Australia will leave the bank's benchmark rate on hold at 3.0%.

Money markets, however, have priced in a 55% chance that policymakers will cut the overnight rate by 25-basis points to a new record low.

Africa
Kenya's central bank will announce its latest rates decision on Monday.

In the face of upside inflation risks, largely attributable to higher food prices, markets expect policymakers to leave the central bank rate on hold at 9.5% for the second straight meeting.

On Tuesday, attention will turn to Egypt's release of official reserves figures.

Political and economic turmoil in the wake of a popular uprising that ousted former President Hosni Mubarak two years ago has scared foreign investors away from Egypt, raised the country's deficit and drained foreign currency reserves needed to pay for food and fuel imports.

Egypt's reserves have plunged by more than half since January 2011, when they stood at around $36-billion, to less than $14-billion in March 2013.

Officials have said that they are hoping to raise reserve levels to $16-billion by the end of the current fiscal year in June.

On Thursday, South Africa, the continent's largest economy, will release last month's mining and manufacturing production figures.

Consensus is that manufacturing output fell 0.2% in March from a year earlier following February's worse than expected 2.9% drop.

South Africa's latest PMI results indicate that weak domestic and external demand has reduced demand for new orders, pointing to reduced manufacturing output over the coming months.

Elsewhere on the continent, Uganda will release March's M3 money supply and foreign reserves data and Tanzania is expected to release gross domestic product figures.

Kenya will do the same this week or the next.

Matt Quigley writes the Mail & Guardian's weekly economics preview. You can follow him on Twitter at @mattquigley.