As a result of the weakened exchange rate, the October outlook is a major concern, says Minister Jeff Radebe. (Madelene Cronje/M&G)
If Quentin Tarantino directed the blockbuster movie, The ANC, who would he cast as Jeff Radebe? Harvey Keitel, surely. In Pulp Fiction, Keitel had a cameo as The Cleaner. "I'm Winston Wolf, I solve problems," he introduces himself to the hapless assassins, played by Samuel L Jackson and John Travolta.
I can see Keitel doing the classic Radebe mannerisms: the side-to-side neck clicks; the extraordinary ability to rotate his eyes around a room without moving a muscle in his head or neck, yet keeping a beady fish-eye on everyone present.
Last week, not for the first time, and probably not for the last, President Jacob Zuma called in The Cleaner. But who is The Cleaner really working for? It may look like JZ's mess, but is it him he's clearing up for?
In Pulp Fiction, as Wolf crisply instructs Jackson and Travolta on cleaning the blood-splattered interior of their car, he says: "If I'm curt with you, it's because time is a factor. I think fast, I talk fast, and I need you guys to act fast if you want to get out of this. So pretty please, with sugar on top, clean the fuckin' car."
You can imagine a similar exchange happening last week between Radebe and the hapless ministers of defence and international relations, Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula and Maite Nkoana-Mashabane respectively. The latter two have not been the warmest of colleagues since South African troops were put in the line of fire earlier this year. When 13 were killed in the Central African Republic (CAR), these two passed the hot potato of accountability back and forth, trying desperately not to finger the person who is really responsible – the president himself.
Zuma is not as invincible as he looked after his victory at Mangaung, just five months ago. Controversies such as Nkandla have washed off his thick hide. But a critical mass of negative events has accrued in a relatively short time, meaning Zuma is weakened, even if he has command of the party for now.
Kleptomaniacal interests
He has suffered three major, potentially game-changing events within a year: the Marikana massacre, the CAR deployment, and now Guptagate. A fourth is bubbling away: the war on Zwelinzima Vavi, general secretary of trade union Cosatu – so often a stabilising and courageous leader and a voice of reason and integrity on issues of accountability and governance. In pursuing this war on Vavi, the alliance's populist right, which can see no further than their immediate kleptomaniacal interests, threatens to cause vast damage to Cosatu, the interests of workers and the hopes of rebuilding the social compact.
All this stinks of imperial overreach and an emperor who is losing control – whose political capital is running low. Along with countless others, I have underestimated Zuma's survival instincts before, and I am perhaps about to do so again – but both my head and my gut tell me a different political equation is forming. On the horizon sits the judicial review of the 2009 decision by the National Prosecuting Authority to drop the corruption charges against Zuma; this was shortly before the elections that took him into the Union Buildings. The next election – the toughest the ANC will have fought since 1994 – is on the same horizon, and it is focusing minds.
So, although I have reason to buy into the short-term thesis (advanced by this newspaper and by Ranjeni Munusamy on the Daily Maverick website) that it was Zuma himself who unleashed Gwede Mantashe to open the public assault on the Guptas, I am less convinced that Zuma is still fully in control of his destiny.
When we come to look back in later years, we may see Guptagate as a different sort of tipping point. The ANC has become a terribly erratic organisation. The anti-Thabo Mbeki coalition that Zuma assembled at Polokwane in 2007 was only at one in its determination to unseat Mbeki, and since then it has been unravelling.
Some of Zuma's backers at Polokwane, who should have known better, are now apparently looking to make amends. Did you hear the anguish and regret in the voices of Blade Nzimande and Jeremy Cronin, last week, as they took their guilty consciences out on the Guptas?
And Zuma's ministers are getting restive. In a year's time, they know, they may no longer be members of Cabinet. Because of the way Zuma operates, they have no way of knowing whether or not he will be loyal to them. Now their loyalty to him may decline, especially if they sense they are in for the chop after the elections in April next year.
Some, including Radebe, are very ambitious and have survivalist skills of their own. Almost by definition, The Cleaner is powerful because he gets to know who caused the blood to be shed as well as who shed it.
South Africa doesn't need Tarantino to make the movie: there's enough political pulp fiction already. And a lot of it is messy, even bloody. The good guys can get hurt, as Vavi is discovering, and there's collateral damage. And the bad guys? Well, they've got people to clean up for them, haven't they?