/ 27 May 2013

Economic week ahead: Will Japan gets its groove back?

Economic Week Ahead: Will Japan Gets Its Groove Back?

Markets lost ground last week in the wake of ambiguous testimony from America's central bank chief. Over the coming days, a series of growth updates and other economic indicators from the US, Japan and South Africa will set the tone. Here is your guide.

United States
American markets will be closed on Monday in observance of Memorial Day. When trading resumes on Tuesday, investors will focus on the Conference Board's latest consumer confidence figures, the S&P/Case-Shiller housing price index and two regional manufacturing indices.

Analysts expect the Conference Board's consumer confidence index to rise from 68.1 in April to 71 in May, a sixth-month high. The S&P Case-Shiller price index may show that housing values jumped by 10.2% from a year earlier in March, the biggest increase in seven years. Business activity indices from the Federal Reserve Banks of Richmond and Dallas are both expected to improve from their abysmal April readings, but remain in negative territory.

Next up, officials will release revised first quarter gross domestic product (GDP) figures on Thursday. Consensus is that the figures will show no change from an advance estimate of 2.5% growth. In a report released last week, economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York revised their 2013 US growth forecast downwards from 3% to 2.5% citing the drag created by US fiscal policy.

Also on Thursday, analysts expect weekly initial jobless benefit claims for the week ended May 25 to have remain unchanged at 340 000.

Finally, on Friday, attention will shift to the Commerce Department's April personal income and outlays (spending) report. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect no change in spending following March's 0.2% rise. The same report is expected to show that incomes grew 0.1% last month following a 0.2% rise in March.

Europe
Christian Noyer, governor of the Bank of France, will hold a news conference on the state of the euro zone's number two economy on Tuesday. Noyer will deliver his remarks one-day before the European Commission releases a report that is expected to be highly critical of the country's failure to cut its debt and institute structural reforms.

EU officials have previously expressed concern that France's low competitiveness and high debt levels pose a continuing threat to the euro, the EU's troubled common currency. Reports suggest that European officials may grant France addition time to reduce debt in exchange for a renewed commitment from President Francois Hollande to pursue structural reforms agreed to by his predecessors but, in the face of widespread popular opposition, never implemented.

On Thursday, Spain – the euro zone's fourth largest economy – will release revised first quarter growth figures. Markets expect the release to confirm that Spain's economy contracted by 0.5% in the three months ended in March from the previous quarter, marking the seventh consecutive quarter of economic decline for the country.

Finally, on Friday, Germany will report last month's retail sales figures. On a monthly basis, retail sales in the Europe's largest economy declined 0.5% in March after falling a revised 0.6% in February. The notoriously volatile figures are expected to show a 0.2% rise for April.

Germany's economy is heavily dependent on exports for growth. But with many of its trading partners struggling, the country's economy is increasingly reliant on domestic consumption.

Asia
Japan will continue to dominate Asian economic news in the week ahead. Global markets will scrutinise a series of data releases from the world's number three economy to see whether or not the country's aggressive stimulus policies are beginning to yield results.

On Wednesday, officials will release April's retail sales figures. Analysts surveyed by Market News International expect sales to have fallen 0.3% last month from a year earlier, their fourth consecutive decline. Economists believe that colder and stormier than normal conditions in the country contributed to the slow pace of spending.

On Friday, attention will shift to inflation, unemployment, household spending, industrial output and housing construction data.

Markets expect Japan's national core CPI to have fallen 0.4% in April from a year earlier. If confirmed, April's suspected drop would be the sixth straight month in which prices showed an annual decline.

Data from the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications is expected to show that Japan's unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1% in April. The Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare's ratio of job offers to job seekers is predicted to show a slight increase, to 0.87 from 0.86 in March.

Household spending may have risen 2.9% in April from a year earlier, down from a 5.2% rise in March.

Industrial output probably rose for a fifth straight month in April. Consensus is for a 0.6% monthly rise following a 0.9% uptick in March and 0.6% rise in February. An increase in general machinery and transportation probably drove the increase.

Africa
South Africa will release first quarter growth figures on Tuesday. Consensus is that gross domestic product (GDP) probably slowed to 2.4% year on year growth in the first quarter.

Africa's largest economy expanded by 2.5% in 2012, but the South African Reserve Bank expects slower growth this year. Officials lowered their 2013 GDP growth forecast from 2.7% to 2.4% following their decision to leave rates on hold last week.

On Thursday, the South African Reserve Bank will release April's money supply and private sector credit extension data. Economists are expecting the bank's monthly release of selected statistics to show that M3 money supply grew by 9.48% in April from a year earlier, up from 8.47% in March. Private sector credit extension growth probably slowed, on a year on year basis, to 7.72% last month from 7.79% in the previous.

Elsewhere on the continent this week, Kenya will release last month's overseas remittances data. Ghana will report April's gross reserves figures. Namibia and Kenya will issue money supply figures and Zambia will report this month's CPI readings.

Matt Quigley writes the Mail & Guardian's weekly economic preview. You can follow him on Twitter at @mattquigley.