/ 21 June 2013

Ethiopia’s ‘managerial blunder’ has Bafana doing sums

Ethiopia's 'managerial Blunder' Has Bafana Doing Sums

It now seems that Sewnet Bishaw counted his chickens way before they hatched.

The Ethiopians are almost certain to lose at least the three points they garnered from that encounter after the association admitted that they had fielded Minyahil Teshome Beyene, who picked up two yellow cards in previous qualifiers and was, therefore, suspended for the match against Botswana.

The president of the Ethiopian Football Federation, Sahilu Gebre­mariam, has been quoted as admitting to BBC Sport that Beyene should have missed the match. "We're not going to appeal; it's a management blunder," he said. "We have accepted the Fifa discipline issue."

Bafana Bafana coach Gordon Igesund has lamented the timing of the admission of guilt – and he should. If Bafana Bafana had approached their match against the Walia Antelopes on June 16 knowing that it was not to be a win by any means necessary, the tactics would surely have been different. They could have gone in with a more conservative approach, with avoiding a loss instead of winning at all costs being at the top of their minds.

The same applies to Ethiopia, though. They would probably have approached the match with far greater aggression than they did had they known that they needed victory as a minimum outcome

Alas, we will never know how that game would have unfolded.

Goal difference
What we do know for sure is that the decision, whether it was an innocent blunder as the Ethiopians are saying or a hope that nobody would notice, has opened the back door for South Africa, albeit ever so slightly.

Contrary to hopeful reports in South Africa, it is not automatic that Bafana Bafana will be awarded the points when the offence was committed in a match that they were not involved in.

Still, if Ethiopia lose the three points from their win over Botswana on June 8, they will return to 10 points and Botswana will improve to their haul to seven. South Africa will stay on eight points.

Unlike with the Africa Cup of Nations, where the primary tie-breaker is the head-to-head results of the two top teams on the log, Fifa has decreed that " the greatest number of points obtained in all group matches,  the goal difference in all group matches, and the greatest number of goals scored in all group matches" must be taken into account.

Assuming that Fifa's decision is to dock Ethiopia points and give them to Botswana but to leave the goals scored and conceded unchanged, the East Africans will go into the tie with the Central Africa Republic with a goal difference of plus 5, while South Africa, with a goal less than the Walia Antelopes, do battle with their numbers. This means that the Ethiopians will need to go for a win against the group's whipping boys, Central Africa Republic, to finish on 13 points.

The possibility of Ethiopia also losing the three points won against South Africa in Addis Ababa for fielding the same player when he had still not served his suspension, is a dream scenario for Bafana Bafana.

If Fifa gives the points to South Africa, only a shock result by Botswana will prevent South Africa from going into the next round of qualifiers.

But, with no precedent to rely on, calculators might yet be put to work.