President Robert Mugabe is unlikely to carry out his threat to pull Zimbabwe out of the 15-member Southern African Development Community (SADC), analysts have said.
Addressing Zanu-PF supporters at a maiden election rally held at the Zimbabwe Grounds in Highfield last week, Mugabe scoffed at the instruction given to him last month by the regional bloc to approach the Constitutional Court for an extension of the election date.
"SADC has no power to command what our courts have ruled. Let it be known that we are in SADC voluntarily and if SADC decides to do stupid things, we can move out. No outsider is allowed to intervene in a situation where our courts have made a ruling," said Mugabe.
Political observers this week dismissed as "grandstanding" Mugabe's threats to pull out of the SADC, saying Zimbabwe is still in need of regional support for its economic turnaround and political support for the coming elections.
Rashweat Mukundu, chairperson of the Zimbabwe Democracy Institute, said: "Mugabe is grandstanding. The SADC is his last line of defence in a world [that is] hostile to his continued rule. He cannot afford politically and economically to pull out of SADC as that would put the last nail in Zimbabwe's struggling economy."
Mukundu said Mugabe's threats were empty because SADC fought in his corner against a hostile international community after the violent and disputed 2008 poll, so "it will be foolhardy on his part to withdraw from SADC", even though the bloc has taken up a harder stance against Mugabe since 2009.
Regional solidarity
According to SADC, the combined gross domestic product of the bloc in 2010 was $575-billion. South Africa is Zimbabwe's largest trade partner, with trade reaching R2.2-billion in 2012, according to the industry and trade ministry.
Political commentator Takura Zhangazha said disputes surrounding the SADC-appointed facilitator's representatives must not be allowed to undermine the historical political integrity of SADC.
"Zimbabwe's independence would not have been won without our neighbours … Zimbabwe has an umbilical cord with the Southern African region," said Zhangazha.
"Its independence and that of those states that attained liberation after Tanzania and Zambia was contrived from a unique African regional solidarity that not only united liberation movements but also the peoples of Southern Africa."
The 53-nation Commonwealth suspended Zimbabwe in 2003 for violating the Harare Declaration with human rights violations. Mugabe pulled Zimbabwe out of the group, citing "unfair treatment" and meddling with Zimbabwe's domestic affairs.
That exit from the Commonwealth has led Zimbabwe's political circles to believe that Mugabe may repeat his actions and pull out of SADC.
Consequences of withdrawal
McDonald Lewanika, director of the civic group Crisis in Zimbabwe Coalition, said history has shown that Mugabe does not shy away from those actions that may appear to be the most unreasonable and, as such, the threat to further isolate Zimbabwe by withdrawing from SADC should not be viewed as a distant possibility.
"The consequences are too ghastly to contemplate, given the reliance of Zimbabwe on the region – as a landlocked country without ports it relies on neighbours to ferry its oil and goods – and the South African-driven business infrastructure that services the country," said Lewanika.
"A withdrawal from the SADC based on errant electoral behaviour may lead to not only Western doors and borders being shut on Zimbabwe, but also regional ones. It is evident that, should Mugabe carry out his threats, it would be ill-advised, ill-considered and lead to nothing but ill for the country."