In 2009, the village of Mvezo in the Eastern Cape was hit by a drought, which destroyed its crops. Experts are warning that a national water crisis is imminent and planning is crucial. (Delwyn Verasamy, M&G)
In 1992 a severe national drought destroyed much of South Africa’s staple mealie crop, and wildfires burnt thousands of hectares of farmland. On the cusp of democracy there was no water.
But the country survived, and the rains came back. Tropical cyclones and floods filled the dams and the surplus maize was exported again.
The economy may have grown, but so has the demand placed on water supplies. If nothing changes, demand will exceed supply by 17% by 2030. This has already happened in many areas.
South Africa is the world’s 30th driest country and is drought-prone. The average rainfall is 500mm a year, but this varies from 2.5mm in the west to 1 000mm in the east. The main economic activity is also in areas where there is little water.
However, engineers have excelled at moving large quantities of water from places that have an excess to those that do not. Dry Gauteng only has sufficient water for its needs because of pipes carrying supplies from as far afield as the Lesotho highlands.
Rapid economic growth in the past two decades has come on the back of excess rainfall — but the threat of drought is never far off.
Water Minister Edna Molewa has warned that the possibility of drought increases every year in the Vaal catchment, which is Gauteng’s most important source of water. This is despite the “good rains” in the past 17 years.
There are frequent local droughts. A disaster area has been declared on the border between the North West, Free State and Northern Cape where hundreds of cattle have died.
Theo de Jager, vice-president of the Pan-African Farmer’s Organisation, said the ANC government has not yet had to deal with a national drought so its ability to do so remains untested. “They have not yet had to make the tough choices between giving water to farms, communities or mines,” he said. “In a drought, somebody has to lose out.”
Eskom is the only entity guaranteed water supply under all conditions, although the Bill of Rights ensures that the government has to give each person 25 litres of free water a day.
For many towns the water crisis has already arrived. eThekwini municipality is turning to expensive options such as desalination and unpopular ones such as recycling water. It is also the first municipality to adopt a formal policy of protecting its upstream wetlands so that they can survive shortages.
There have been vocal warnings about drought from the likes of Professor Will Alexander of the University of Pretoria.
A former hydrologist at the water affairs department, he predicted a drought between 2009 and 2016 and has said the country is already experiencing widespread drought conditions. These are adversely affecting rivers that are already having too much water taken out of them, and many communities are experiencing water shortages. “A serious situation has developed. The coming months in the summer rainfall region will be critical,” he said.
Mike Muller, a member of the National Planning Commission, said other countries had survived droughts because of good planning.
Australia recently had its worst drought in a century with little adverse economic effects. This was because people could trade water, so those with no water could buy it from those who had a surplus, or whose need was less critical.
This was policy in South Africa, but Molewa has moved to stop this. Any water that is not used will now be returned to a national pool.
This issue of policy has to be resolved before the next drought. It is not a case of “if” it will occur, but rather “when” it will occur, Muller said, adding that the water affairs department’s review of policy does not include the words “drought” and “flood” and does not deal with extremes.
Research in the South African Journal of Science this month linked the increasing temperatures in the region to the hole in the ozone layer above Antarctica. The hole draws clouds over the South Pole. They trap heat, which heads north towards the continent where there are lowpressure systems. This has pushed temperatures up by two degrees in the interior in the past two decades, and will continue to do so. This will continue to decrease rainfall. It also means less rainfall for the Western Cape, as the winter fronts that feed it retreat south.
Although there has been above-average rainfall in the past few years, this year most provinces started with less water in their dams than last year.
There has been a 15% drop in levels in the Free State, Gauteng and North West, and 8% in the Western Cape. Only the most easterly provinces have had more rain.
