The ANC’s closely guarded internal polling data suggests that it will lose both the Tshwane and Nelson Mandela Bay metros in next week’s local government elections, and will hang on to Johannesburg by only a hair’s breadth.
And different camps are already preparing for the blame game that will inevitably follow swiftly after the local election results are announced.
President Jacob Zuma’s opponents in his party hope to pin the poor results on him personally, and use that to push him out before the ANC’s 2017 elective conference.
But this week, Zuma supporters – who still hold sway at every important level – sketched out a plan that would instead see:
- A post-election drive to spread the message that the party collectively, rather than Zuma individually, is responsible for the result;
- A Cabinet reshuffle right after the elections, to distract from and redirect blame for the results; and
- Swift and brutal action on a provincial level, going so far as to disband the ANC provincial executive committee (PEC) in Gauteng.
In three Gauteng metros, weekly election polls released by Ipsos show a substantial drop in ANC support. But Ipsos admits these cellphone surveys are less reliable than its six-monthly face-to-face “people’s polls”. These one-on-one interviews predict that the ANC will still win close to 50% of the vote in Tshwane, Johannesburg and Ekurhuleni.
But the party’s internal numbers tell a different story. An ANC national executive committee (NEC) member who asked not to be named said the party’s own surveys showed it was likely to lose Tshwane and Nelson Mandela Bay, although it may retain Johannesburg by a slight margin. This is despite its decision to install two of its seasoned cadres as mayoral candidates in those metros: Danny Jordaan in Nelson Mandela Bay and Thoko Didiza in Tshwane.
“Our survey shows we are leading by more than 40% in Johannesburg, but a huge number of people were undecided. Fortunately, we knew where the undecided were. We have been working hard over the past few weeks to convince the undecided voters to give us [the ANC] a last chance,” said the NEC member.
The party seems to be most worried about Nelson Mandela Bay. Several senior ANC leaders are descending on Port Elizabeth for the final days of campaigning to garner support. Most will only return to Gauteng in time to attend the party’s Siyanqoba rally at Ellis Park Stadium on Sunday, according to ANC insiders.
The party will use the rally to demonstrate that it still enjoys overwhelming support, particularly in Gauteng. But at street level its claims are looking shaky. Some ANC volunteers who were part of the party’s door-to-door campaign told the Mail & Guardian how Gautengers, especially in middle-class areas, complained about the party’s failure to take action against Zuma for the scandals he has been embroiled in.
An ANC volunteer, who is also a senior government leader, said: “People are saying the government has lowered the bar on corruption. They say the ANC has no moral authority to speak on corruption because it is failing to deal with the elephant in the room. The ANC leadership has to be seen [to be] fighting corruption. How do we talk about the fight against corruption if we can’t deal with our own president?” Gauteng premier and ANC deputy chair in the province David Makhura has reportedly appealed to voters not to punish the party because of Zuma.
“If you have an issue with the president of the ANC, my appeal to you is just appreciate the level of complexity in the ANC. The ANC has had its ups and downs, but it has always been more enduring than its individual leaders,” the Sunday Times quoted Makhura as saying in an obscure election speech last week.
Others insist that Zuma cannot be singled out. A member of the provincial executive council in the Eastern Cape, who is sympathetic to Zuma, said: “Everyone is campaigning for the ANC. The campaign is about service delivery. [Zuma] is not service delivery. We have structures that must respond to service delivery. This is not a national election.”
His sentiments were shared by a PEC member in Gauteng, who complained about Makhura’s reported statements. Such comments were not helpful to the organisation, he said, adding that the chances that Zuma will be removed from office are slim.
He said: “What could actually happen is that people [Zuma supporters] might want to push for the disbandment of the PEC in Gauteng and defend Zuma. That will be an easy option, given that Zuma supporters in the ANC are in the majority.”
Zuma has not forgiven Gauteng for saying he should step down after the Constitutional Court ruling on the Nkandla upgrades, he added.
The PEC member said that, although the ANC was facing its toughest elections since 1994, the “premier league” faction – consisting of provincial premiers David Mabuza (Mpumalanga), Ace Magashule (Free State) and Supra Mahumapelo (North West) – remained “solid” in its support of Zuma.
Tensions between pro- and anti-Zuma factions played out this week when Western Cape ANC chair Marius Fransman, supported by Zuma and the party’s elections head, Nomvula Mokonyane, claimed he had been reinstated, but ANC secretary general Gwede Mantashe said he must still face a disciplinary process.
Faultlines in the party were also evident in KwaZulu-Natal – Zuma’s heartland – this week, as supporters of ousted premier Senzo Mchunu turned to the courts demanding that the provincial conference that unseated him be declared invalid.
Disbanding the ANC’s top structure in Gauteng and reshuffling the Cabinet is seen as a strategy to weaken the anti-Zuma faction ahead of the party’s 2017 elective conference.
But Steven Friedman of the Centre for the Study of Democracy at the University of Johannesburg said the divide between rural and urban perceptions of the ANC may work to benefit the party in Gauteng.
“In the short term it may well make the Gauteng ANC and its supporters weaker, because the irony of this situation is that [for] a lot of the voters who are angry in the cities, the politicians [who] they are angry with are not the urban politicians. But they vote in the cities, so in other words the Gauteng ANC may well pay the price for what other sections of the ANC are doing.
“But in the longer term, it might actually strengthen them [the Gauteng anti-Zuma faction]. And the reason for that is, if the ANC does badly, a lot of people will lose their seats and will be very angry with the current leadership and may well be available at the next ANC congress to vote against the bloc that is currently running the presidency.”
ANC spokesperson Zizi Kodwa has no such qualms, however: “We are very positive that we will win overwhelmingly with the ANC led by President Zuma – and I think, not only will we win because of him, we will win because of our collective effort and the work of volunteers.
“Internally we are comfortable with Nelson Mandela Bay and comfortable with Tshwane, so anything that is suggested by someone who calls himself a NEC member, that is an ‘Mzekezeke’ who’s got other ulterior motives.” – Additional reporting by Lynley Donnelly & Govan Whittles