Face-off: Supporters of president-elect Adama Barrow tear down a banner of the incumbent Yahya Jammeh. Photo: Marco Longari/AFP
In a further escalation of the post-election crisis in the tiny West African country, there have been reports that a Nigerian warship has been deployed off the Gambian coast and that a regional military force is being assembled in neighbouring Senegal for possible military intervention.
The events are the clearest signs yet that the regional Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas) could act militarily to remove Yahya Jammeh from power.
What are the precedents for joint military action by West African states?
This wouldn’t be the first time that Ecowas has intervened to resolve a national conflict. The 15-member organisation has acted in all the major hot spots in its jurisdiction, ranging from the civil war in Liberia in 1990 to the post-election crisis in Côte d’Ivoire in 2011.
Ecowas is the first regional security organisation to intervene militarily in an internal conflict in the region.
When civil war broke out in Liberia in 1989, the United States, which had strong ties with Monrovia, merely evacuated its citizens and turned a blind eye to the crisis.
The United Nations was preoccupied with resolving crises in the [Persian]Gulf and Yugoslavia and left Liberia to its own devices. Ecowas intervened militarily on humanitarian grounds. But the crisis that comes closest to the current Gambian impasse is the electoral dispute in Côte d’Ivoire.
The incumbent president, Laurent Gbagbo, and his Popular Front Party were defeated in the 2010 run-off elections but refused to step down for the winner, Alassane Ouattara. West African leaders were quick to decide to intervene militarily to remove Gbagbo.
In the case of Côte d’Ivoire, UN peacekeepers had already been deployed to the country because of a conflict that had started in September 2002.
How clear are the justifications for military intervention?
Ecowas can intervene militarily through its mediation and security council on the advice of its defence and security commission. But any intervention must be carried out within the UN Charter.
This provides for the involvement of regional arrangements and agencies in the maintenance of international peace and security, provided such activities are consistent with the purposes and principles outlined in chapter one of the charter.
As a member of Ecowas, the Gambia is bound by the decisions of the regional organisation and protocols relating to peace and security. Indeed, the recommendation to establish and deploy the Ecomog [Ecowas Ceasefire Monitoring Group] in Liberia in 1990 was made by a committee chaired by the then Gambian president, Dawda Jawara.
For military intervention, regional leaders can invoke the supplementary protocol on democracy and good governance, which proclaims: “Zero tolerance for power obtained or maintained by unconstitutional means.” Article 45 (1) states: “In the event that democracy is abruptly brought to an end by any means or where there is massive violation of human rights in a member state, Ecowas may impose sanctions on the state concerned.”
The Ecowas mechanism for conflict prevention, management, resolution, peacekeeping and security, known simply as the mechanism, authorises all forms of intervention including the deployment of political and military missions.
West African states can intervene militarily under article 25 of the mechanism in response to conflict between two or several member states and in the event of internal conflict that “threatens to trigger a humanitarian disaster; or that poses a serious threat to peace and security in the subregion”.
What are the chances of success of such an intervention?
Jammeh will certainly be removed if Ecowas decides to use force. But that will come at a heavy price for the Gambia and neighbouring states.
The regional ramifications in terms of resources to maintain the mission, refugee flows and the destruction and untold hardships that the people will face should not be glossed over.
The use of military force may trigger attacks between his supporters and those of his key opponent and the president-elect, Adama Barrow.
Conflict between political groupings can trigger a civil war that will be difficult to resolve. It may take the form of ethnic cleansing, particularly in view of Jammeh’s long stay in power and the toes his administration might have stepped on. His supporters will be the targets and there would be reprisal attacks. It’s not simply a matter of forcefully removing Jammeh from power.
What are the potential consequences should such a mission fail?
The success or failure also depends on the mandate. If the Ecowas force’s mandate is to forcefully remove Jammeh and it fails then I’m sure there will be a high human toll. This could result in huge displacements internally and refugees would flow into neighbouring states.
But the chances of failure are small if Ecowas intervenes with the tacit support of the UN. It wouldn’t be an easy task but, in the end, Jammeh would be removed at whatever cost.
Do you think military intervention is the best option?
My own view is that more intense mediation is required before the military option is deployed. Other options such as diplomatic sanctions, including severing ties with the Jammeh administration, remain to be pursued. If Ecowas intervenes militarily now to force Jammeh out of office, it may still not get Barrow installed.
If he is installed in another location, Jammeh is likely to get himself sworn into office.
Should the mission succeed, does the end justify the means?
If the mission succeeds through military means then the international community would have to begin the process of rebuilding peace.
If Jammeh gets the backing of his security, which may also be supported by civilian groups, then the international community should be prepared to rebuild what’s destroyed. — theconversation.com
Abdul-Jalilu Ateku’s research is being carried out at the Centre for Conflict, Security and Terrorism, School of Politics and International Relations, at the University of Nottingham. He taught in the department of political science at the University of Ghana and served as the senior programmes manager in charge of research, monitoring and evaluation in Ghana’s National Peace Council
Barrow says he’ll take power
The Gambia’s president-elect, Adama Barrow, was set to be inaugurated on Thursday, capping weeks of tension over Yahya Jammeh’s refusal to quit.
The country appeared on the brink of a military crisis although the army chief insisted his soldiers would not get involved in a “political dispute” nor prevent foreign forces from entering the Gambia.
Senegalese and other troops have gathered at the border. Tourists are leaving the country and The Guardian reported that tens of thousands of citizens have fled.
Barrow has taken refuge in Senegal and insisted his inauguration would go ahead. He announced that he was sending 205 soldiers as part of a regional force to enforce the result of the country’s disputed election.
On January 18, Chief of Defence Staff Ousman Badjie said he loved his men and wouldn’t risk their lives in a “stupid fight”.
“If they [Senegalese] come in, we are here like this,” Badjie said, making a hands-up-to-surrender gesture.
Mai Fatty, a spokesperson for Barrow’s opposition coalition, said soldiers and police would “certainly become a legitimate target” if they stood in the way of the new government.
After 11th-hour talks in Banjul, Mauritanian President Mohamed Ould Abdel flew on to Dakar where he met Barrow for talks at which Senegal’s President Macky Sall was also present, the private RFM radio station reported.
It was not clear whether the Mauritanian leader had secured a deal or made an asylum offer to Jammeh.
The last-minute intervention by Mauritania came after several unsuccessful attempts at diplomacy by the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas).
Although Barrow and his team have said the inauguration will go ahead on Gambian soil, the inauguration’s head organiser, James Gomez, said plans for the ceremony to take place in a huge stadium outside the capital had been cancelled.
On Tuesday, Jammeh announced a state of emergency in reaction to what he said was foreign interference in the December election.
Speaking to AFP at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Amnesty International chief Salil Shetty hailed Ecowas efforts to resolve the crisis.
“Ecowas has stood up and they don’t always do that,” he said. “It’s an important message to Jammeh, from the people of the Gambia, the people of Africa and from neighbouring states that it’s not business as usual any more.” — AFP
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