/ 5 July 2011

ANC’s succession race heats up

Anc's Succession Race Heats Up

The person regarded as the most credible alternative to replace South Africa’s President Jacob Zuma as the head of the African National Congress (ANC) has denied claims he will seek the party’s top job when it elects leaders next year.

Deputy President Kgalema Motlanthe, seen as a respected consensus builder, has been pushed by groups within the ANC who want to oust an ineffectual Zuma seen as doing little to push their left-leaning agenda.

We reflect on Cosatu’s central committee gathering this week, which proved to be the federation’s most fraught meeting of the past two years. Take a look at the week in pictures, as we consider the major points of contention.

“The deputy president’s office wishes to state categorically that Deputy President Kgalema Motlanthe … is not involved in any campaigning or lobbying for the presidency of the ANC and he has not spoken to anyone about his future role in the ANC,” a statement issued by Motlanthe said late on Monday.

The knives are out for Zuma, ANC insiders have said, but the party frowns on open campaigning for top party posts and considers it political suicide to declare intentions to seek office.

“There is no individual lobbying, not because of an absence of good people in leadership positions, [but because] it is the culture of the organisation that makes it difficult for these people to raise their hands,” said political analyst Sipho Seepe.

The worry for investors is that a weakened Zuma may try to win back support from political heavyweights for the Congress of South African Trade Unions and the ANC Youth League by backing their calls for nationalisation of major industries and labour reforms that would drive up costs for employers.

“People are not happy with Zuma and are not happy with the corruption and where the country is going,” said an ANC official who asked not to be named.

Zuma was elected as leader of the ANC in 2007 when it last voted for party leaders and president of the country in 2009. The ANC candidate in the next national presidential election in 2014 is almost certain to win given its dominance.

ANC insiders said Zuma’s lack of direction and multiple marriages have alienated him from his supporters who want a more credible alternative.

Motlanthe, a former ANC and National Union of Mineworkers secretary general, is seen as a unifying force in the party who commands the support of left-leaning factions as well as business elements within the party.

He served several months as president in 2008 and 2009 in a caretaker government, but did not advance any significant policies to alter Africa’s largest economy.

“Zuma is intimidated by Motlanthe and sees him as a real threat. If they go head to head, there is a possibility Zuma will come second,” the ANC source said.

Cosatu defers talks
Meanwhile, Cosatu’s central committee meeting closed on June 30 with no resolutions emerging on key political and economic issues.

Cosatu did not take decisions on whether or not to open talks on the ANC’s election of new leadership next year, or on the call for nationalisation or land reform, which featured on its agenda for discussion.

The trade union federation deferred the talks to a leadership meeting in August after the central committee ran out of time and documents emerging from group discussions on the economy and politics were poorly written, said general secretary Zwelinzima Vavi.

“The content and style … that’s why it wasn’t discussed, it was going to take us in 20 different directions,” he told reporters at a media briefing after the delegates were sent home.

Vavi was referring to the political document, the draft of which included nationalisation, the succession debate, and the emergence of what Cosatu termed a “new tendency” — where people used political connections for their own accumulation interests”, adopting an “it’s our turn to eat” stance.

“If we had time.. there would have been a discussion of all manner of things,” he said, adding that this included the issue of “demagogues” in the movement.

The draft document read: “They rely on populist demagoguery politics to allow them enough political space and power to push for their accumulation agenda.”

Cosatu earlier said this referred to some within the ANC Youth League. – Reuters, Sapa