As expected, COP27 was an exercise in avoidance and blame-shifting, where the world’s largest fossil fuel polluters, the oil and gas industry, got away scot-free.
South Africa’s water resources will be hardest hit by climate change and the impact will be felt most in the urban areas, with about 61% of the population.
A national climate change response strategy proposed by the environment department says present population-growth trends and water-use behaviour indicate that South Africa will exceed the limits of its economically usable land-based water resources by 2050.
“Water is arguably the primary medium through which the impact of climate change will be felt by people, ecosystems and economies,” it says. “After water, the prognosis for domestic food security is a major cause for concern, as are further threats to an already challenging national health profile.”
The response strategy, set out in a green paper under discussion at a series of public workshops around the country, identifies water as the key adaptation sector in dealing with the future impact of climate change. A white paper incorporating the public input is expected to be finalised later this year, prior to the global COP17 climate change negotiations in Durban from November 28.
The paper points out that if negotiations do not succeed in decreasing the average global temperature by at least 2°C, “the potential impact on South Africa in the medium to long term is potentially catastrophic”. It predicts that by mid-century the coast will warm by 1°C to 2°C and the interior by about 2°C to 3°C. After 2050 warming is projected to reach about 3°C to 4°C along the coast and 6°C to 7°C in the interior. “With these kinds of temperature increases, life as we know it will change completely.”
Rising temperatures will lead to more erratic weather, more flooding and greater rainfall variability. Evaporation from dams and rivers will increase and run-off on the ground will decrease so that less water reaches rivers and dams. As a result, the cost of providing water services will rise. “It is estimated that just a 10% decline in run-off could double the cost of new water schemes, raising the cost to the fiscus and users.”
Cities are particularly vulnerable, the document says, because they are slow to adapt to changes in the environment and they rely on specific delivery mechanisms for critical services. “Water demand from the urban centres is growing rapidly, stressing water supply systems and the treatment of waste water has not tracked growth in demand and use.”
The rapid influx of people in the past decade into already overcrowded urban areas with large service delivery backlogs has led to the formation of informal settlements in vulnerable locations, such as on the banks of streams, on sand dunes, steep hillsides or in marshy areas. Their vulnerability is exacerbated by the use of inferior building materials and inadequate road access for emergency vehicles.
“Climate change may worsen the problems caused by unsustainable development in urban areas. For example, poor storm-water drainage systems and soil erosion results in flash flooding. Increased storm intensity could make these problems more severe.”
Interventions proposed in the draft strategy include encouraging the development of water-sensitive urban design that minimises pollution and erosion. Storm water should be captured within the urban landscape and not simply discharged into rivers or the sea.
Although most coastal towns discharge their waste water into the sea after limited treatment, it says, cities like Cape Town and Durban are now acknowledging that it is significantly more cost-effective to treat and recycle this water for reuse, rather than building new dams. Increased investment is needed in waste-water treatment capacity and in the maintenance of infrastructure.
“Maintenance deferred is infinitely more expensive and the country needs the most efficient networks possible to optimise currently available resources.” A proposal that generated interest at the workshop held in KwaZulu-Natal was the development of an incentive programme for household rainwater harvesting.
One participant said research had shown 50 000 jobs could be created in five years in the rainwater harvesting industry, but government needed to introduce guidance standards. Another suggestion that generated interest, but was rejected by an Earthlife Africa representative, was the desalination of sea water for human use.
The amount and type of energy used to do this is controversial, so the green paper suggests it should be powered by renewable energy resources. Other suggestions to address challenges facing urban settlements include ensuring that climate models are downscaled to provincial, metropolitan and district levels so that they can inform spatial and development planning.
“Critical uncertainties must inform the allocation of resources. This information can be used to ensure that long-term settlement and infrastructure plans can adequately -incorporate climate risk.”
The paper also suggests regulating commercial building standards with a view to enforcing green building construction practices and mandating the National Home Builders’ Registration Council to ensure that construction conforms to green building requirements.
It proposes broadening the mandate of the Construction Industry Development Board to include green building and construction practices as a specific requirement to be met by contractors who want to participate in the public tender system.
The ultimate objective in addressing the impact of climate change on water resources, the paper says, is “to develop and maintain good water-management systems and institutions, from village through to national level, to ensure we can sustain affordable provision to all”.