The end of log play in Super Rugby tends to be an excuse for a few games of basketball. Remember Lions 65, Chiefs 72 in Johannesburg last year, or Bulls 62, Cats 52 in Pretoria in 2004? If you don’t, there’s a very good reason: neither result counted for anything.
It’s possible that this week’s contest in Melbourne between the Rebels and the Force may be another try fest, since it is the only fixture of the final round that has absolutely nothing hanging on it. The other six results will all have a material effect on the forthcoming playoffs, which is as it should be, but rarely is. The grim rugby played by the contenders of late is informed by the rigours of the newly adopted structure.
In New Zealand the Crusaders are the hot favourites to win the conference, but they need to beat the mercurial Hurricanes. The Blues are a point behind the Crusaders and finish against the Highlanders. If they lose, they will drop from fourth to fifth in the overall log, which will affect who they play next. If they win and the Crusaders lose, the Blues will move a place or two up the table.
In Australia the Reds have the conference sewn up, but they are still vulnerable at the top of the overall standings. They have to travel to New Zealand to play the Chiefs. Lose that and they could be supplanted by the Stormers on a difference in points, assuming the Stormers beat the Cheetahs in Bloemfontein.
The Waratahs are the second Australian side hoping to contest the playoffs and they would appear to have the easier of the options with a home tie against the directionless Brumbies. But the Brumbies beat the Reds in Brisbane a fortnight ago, so no one is taking anything for granted.
The Bulls and Sharks will be hoping for a pointless outing by the Waratahs, which would ensure that both South African teams would join the Stormers in the playoffs. If the Waratahs lose, but earn a bonus point, the Sharks would still be eliminated in the event of defeat at Loftus, for the Waratahs are vastly superior in points. Sharks coach John Plumtree has admitted it will be difficult to ignore what’s happening in Australia before the sides emerge from the Loftus tunnel. Both sides will know what is required before their game begins and, historically, that situation has benefited the Bulls.
Big win
In 2005 the Bulls needed a big win in the final round to avoid the Crusaders in the semifinals. They went down to Newlands and whipped the Stormers 75-14. Two years later they needed a big win to earn a home semifinal. The hapless Reds, who finished bottom of the log that year, were slaughtered 92-3. The Bulls went on to beat the Crusaders at Loftus in the semis, then earned the first of their three titles with a last-minute win against the Sharks in the final in Durban.
Now the same two sides meet in their most significant encounter since that balmy day in May 2007, hence the “sold out” notices that went up on Tuesday. The Bulls are on a winning streak of six games and have a home advantage and a restored belief that, collectively, they can walk through walls. The Sharks have blown hot and cold and needed an extraordinary three tries in the final quarter to earn a draw with the Lions last week.
It’s hard to believe that the Sharks are good enough to upset the odds this time and the shrewdest bet on offer this week was the 16-1 against the Bulls retaining their title from here. They may not be the unstoppable force of recent times, but they know how to win when it matters.
There is character in the side and not just among the mega stars. Recalling the first trip to Newlands of his younger brother, this is what Bulls flanker Dewald Potgieter wrote on his SuperSport blog after the Bulls edged the Stormers in Cape Town last week: “Unfortunately, his maiden voyage was also his one and only one. The Stormers’ opposition on the day was the Chiefs and his opposition was cancer. He was their mascot. The Stormers went on to win the battle, but he lost his later that year. He was six years old, and a 14-year-old Dewie sat in the stands, wearing black from head to toe, as was the custom back then, cheering him on as he reached for his dream. It took me seven more years to reach mine in Super Rugby — incidentally on that very field.”
When things conspire to make a bunch of muddied oafs too important, it’s good to remember stories like that one. Be that as it may, here’s what will happen if, as seems likely, the Reds, Stormers, Crusaders, Blues, Bulls and Waratahs all win this week. The Crusaders play the Waratahs in Nelson, the Blues face the Bulls at Eden Park and the Reds and Stormers get a week off to gird their loins.