The fun part of the World Cup is winding down and the pressure is cranking up. This weekend features a number of last-chance saloons and by Monday the four quarterfinals will be written in ink. With the possible exception of Ireland’s 15-6 win over Australia there have been no shocks and that is likely to continue to the end of the pool phase.
Argentina’s 13-12 win over Scotland in the teeming rain of Wellington on Sunday has complicated Pool B. The Pumas should have no problem in dispatching Georgia in Palmerston North on Sunday, which puts the spotlight firmly on England vs Scotland at Eden Park on Saturday.
A win for England would send them through at the top of the group to play France at Eden Park on October 8. A bonus point win for Scotland would open up a number of possibilities. If the Scots stop England getting a bonus point, while the Pumas take five points from the match with Georgia, England would fail to progress to the knockout stages.
Meanwhile, if England lose but earn a bonus point, the first determining factor for qualification, that of who beat who in pool play, falls away. That’s because England beat Argentina, Argentina beat Scotland and Scotland would have beaten England. Then the two teams to progress would do so on the basis of points difference. Argentina trail England by 67 points at the moment, while Scotland are a distant 81 behind, so they would probably lose out.
Given the current strengths of the two Six Nations teams, it’s hard to see Scotland winning at all, never mind earning five log points and freezing out England. That explains the sad postscript to Sunday’s trench warfare in Wellington, with one team jubilant, the other crestfallen, knowing that their chance of reaching the quarterfinals had disappeared in one moment of defensive frailty late in the game.
But, as ever, the formbook is not always required reading in the last chance saloon, so Scotland still have hope, as do Italy, who finish against Ireland in Dunedin on Sunday.
Nick Mallett’s side will have to upset the odds to beat Ireland and they will have no help from the elements, for the Otago Stadium has a permanent roof, unlike the retractable one that hosted the 1999 final in Cardiff.
Given the multi-purpose aims behind the construction of the stadium in New Zealand’s southernmost city, it is perhaps wrong to criticise the roof. There will be plenty of locals who would far rather watch the Highlanders lose in a dry, climate-controlled arena than win in the Spartan setting of the old venue at Carisbrooke, the famous “House of Pain”.
But the clash between Argentina and Scotland in Wellington was a reminder that rugby union was born on the cold and muddy fields of England and its unique appeal has always been that it is a game for all types.
The tighthead prop may be an expendable acreage of flesh on a hard, dry surface in Johannesburg, but in driving rain and churning mud he is worth his weight in gold. So it seems a shame that Martin Castrogiovanni, the man of the match when Italy beat the United States this week, will not get the chance to strut his stuff in ideal conditions against Ireland.
Italy’s principle asset is a dominant front row and the Otago Stadium roof is just one more reason why it is hard to see Ireland losing. Unlike Scotland, however, Italy do not need a bonus point to progress, since Ireland are only three points ahead of them at the top of the log.
The penalty try earned by Castrogiovanni and his chums at the end of the match against the USA gave Italy a vital four-try bonus point.
So there is no room for complacency for Ireland, but the same is true of South Africa, who end the pool section against Samoa on Auckland’s north shore on Friday. Defeat for the Springboks could still see them fail to reach the quarterfinals for the first time ever. If Samoa cause a major upset the Boks should still be safe if they gather a bonus point. If not, then Wales would qualify alongside Samoa.
It has been well publicised that Samoa and the other so-called “second tier” nations have been given a raw deal at this World Cup. It is, unfortunately, the nature of the beast and unlikely to change. Television audiences want the major sides playing in prime time and multimillion dollar rights deals speak louder than the tweets of disgruntled players.
So the odds are stacked against Samoa, who have never come close to beating South Africa and have had the misfortune to be drawn against them on a regular basis at World Cups. Wales should beat Fiji, despite having lost to the same side in 2007, and that should see them progress to the quarterfinals alongside South Africa and at the expense of Samoa.
Next weekend’s quarterfinals should look like this:
Ireland vs Wales (Wellington)
England vs France (Auckland)
South Africa vs Australia (Wellington)
New Zealand vs Argentina (Auckland)
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