The face of Joseph Kabila stares down from a billboard with the slogan “100% for the president”. It makes little impression on the rowdy young crowd gathered in a circle to watch wrestlers grapple in the dust. Kabila seems unpopular with a generation of Congolese short on patience and itching for change.
“Look at the way we students are surviving compared to the students of Libya,” said Andre Lupaka, a 29-year-old at Kinshasa University. “They have scholarships and cars; we do not. We are having a miserable life, and I hope the president and his government will go away.”
President Kabila, enjoying the advantages of 10 years in power, is the favourite to secure another term against divided opposition in Monday’s elections. Such a result will mean business as usual for his international allies but will alarm those who believe Kabila (40) is well on his way to joining the first rank of African autocrats.
Victory for Kabila is widely predicted to trigger a violent backlash in one of Africa’s biggest and most unstable countries. International observers have cried foul, with allegations of “ghost voters”, fake polling stations and brutal persecution of the opposition. Kabila’s rivals are unlikely to take defeat quietly.
The vote will be held a year to the day after a presidential runoff in Côte d’Ivoire led to civil war. Since then, voters in countries such as Nigeria and Zambia have constructed a more positive narrative for sub-Saharan Africa. The continent is shaped like a gun, philosopher Frantz Fanon observed, and Congo is the trigger. Now the pressure is on the Democratic Republic to live up to its name.
Living on less than $1.25 a day
But Congo’s history is a nightmare, from which its people are trying to awake. Belgium was arguably the cruellest of all colonisers. Dictator Mobutu Sese Seko looted the nation’s wealth for 32 years, then a civil war sparked by genocide in neighbouring Rwanda left more than 4-million people dead and brought about the biggest peacekeeping operation in UN history. Despite $24-trillion of known mineral deposits, Congo sits bottom of the latest UN human development index: 60% of people live on less than $1.25 a day.
Kabila was hastily installed as president in 2001 when his father, Laurent, was assassinated by a bodyguard at the height of the civil war. He went on to win a disputed election in 2006. A man of few words, he has proved adept at political chess, retaining the backing of international allies, reconciling with former foes, such as Rwanda, and using coalition pacts to shore up his power.
But Kabila’s stock has nosedived among Congo’s 71-million population over a failure to tackle poverty and corruption. He is weak both in Kinshasa and the east, despite some improvements in security. He is mocked by Congolese media for a love of video games in a society where loud verbal sparring is the norm, both in politics and on the street.
Philippe Biyoya, a politics professor at Kinshasa University, said: “A large majority would like to see change but not the elites. Now we are in the Shakespeare dilemma: to be or not to be?”
Observers detect creeping signs of tyranny. Under Kabila, there have been numerous reports of activists and journalists being arrested, beaten or killed. The election campaign has been marred by deaths, intimidation and arbitrary detentions; security forces were accused by the UN of attacking people merely for wearing campaign T-shirts. Some opposition radio stations have been shut down and opposition gatherings banned in parts of the country.
Everyone for president
An internal EU observer mission report found abuse of authority by President Kabila’s camp, which it said was using state assets to campaign. He is accused of paying MPs to amend the constitution so this year’s election will be settled in a single round — in theory, he could retain power with barely more than 10% of the vote as long as he outpolls each of the other 10 candidates. He has also been criticised for appointing 17 inexperienced judges to the Supreme Court so it will back him in the event of a legal challenge. And a friend is said to be the head of the election commission.
“I don’t think Kabila will accept defeat,” said Biyoya. “His opponents will not accept it either. The process in Congo is on the same road as Côte d’Ivoire: everyone will proclaim themselves the president. Then we shall see how the international community intervenes to resolve the problem.”
Such predictions are rejected by Kuete Nyimi Clément, cabinet director of the pro-Kabila People’s Party for Reconstruction and Democracy. He says the president is ready to embrace the results “enthusiastically” and accept the will of the people.
Among the thousands of campaign placards, posters and hand painted banners on the grime and rubbish-strewn streets of Kinshasa, Kabila’s are the biggest and more numerous. They present a familiar mantra of roads, jobs, housing, schools and hospitals, water and electricity, showing pictures of gleaming new construction projects and high-tech trains.
But one issue that is clearly not a priority is eastern Congo’s epidemic of rape. Clément said: “I’m against those who say Congo is the capital of sexual violence. The people who make it a big problem are the non-government organisations — there are more than 60 in eastern Congo. These NGOs are just playing the data concerning the number of people raped. They are able to create more victims and make exaggerated publicity on this issue.”
Violence expected
Singling out Human Rights Watch for criticism, he added: “They live on the issue. If they don’t speak about it, there is no funding. They are showing people’s poverty to get funding.”
Even in the light of such attitudes, western governments appear reluctant to criticise Kabila, arguing that it must be up to the Congolese people to decide. But local activists are worried. Asked if Kabila could become Africa’s next dictator, Pascal Kambale, of the Open Society Initiative for West Africa, laughed: “Next dictator? He already is one.”
Kabila’s grip on state security forces is relatively weak, however, and his likely victory will not go unchallenged, Kambale said. “A huge section of the opposition has no confidence in the national independent electoral commission (Ceni). The same is true of civil society organisations and the population. The perception is things [that] have been cooked already; the international community has already chosen.”
He added: “I don’t think there’s any question there will be violence. The only unknown is the extent of the violence. People will make it extremely difficult for Kabila to govern. The perception will be that he stole the election. In 2006 he was extremely popular, but now he’s very unpopular, so will be considered illegitimate.”
Kabila’s soldiers fought gun battles in central Kinshasa against loyalists of presidential rival Jean-Pierre Bemba after the 2006 election, resulting in hundreds of deaths. Bemba, a former rebel leader, is prevented from standing this time because he is on trial for war crimes at the international criminal court in The Hague. The lead challenger is Étienne Tshisekedi (78), who bills himself as “Congo’s Nelson Mandela”. His Union for Democracy and Social Progress has alleged repressive crackdowns and media manipulation during the election campaign.
Fictitious polling booths
Jacquemain Shabani, the party’s secretary general, said: “Two of our friends have been killed in the campaign for a transparent election. Twenty have been arrested and tortured by the security people of Kabila because we took part in a peaceful demonstration.”
Speaking at the party’s crumbling headquarters, its windows smashed by petrol bombs and stones thrown by Kabila supporters, Shabani said there is evidence of 50 fictitious polling booths and thousands of people missing from voters’ lists. “This gives the impression of cheating that is systematic and massive,” he said. He stopped short of threatening to take up arms if Tshisekedi is defeated, but added ominously: “We don’t know the consequences. Only God knows the consequences. As a responsible political party, we ask the people to be intelligent and critical. We are ready to fight for a good result. We have to fight for a transparent situation because we are living in darkness.”
Another presidential candidate has a familiar name. Mobutu Nzanga makes no attempt to hide his father’s identity; in fact, giant pictures of Mobutu Sese Seko in a leopard-skin cap dominate the reception room at his campaign office. Mobutu Nzanga himself sports a bright orange-and-black printed shirt.
“From a UK point of view, whether here or in your country, a dictator is a dictator,” the 41-year-old said. “I got nearly 1-million votes in 2006. People here think of president Mobutu as a man of peace who maintained peace and unity, and you know how important unity is for the Congolese.”
Mobutu Nzanga said he is proud of his father, despite the commonly held view that he was a kleptocratic tyrant. “That is a point of view. This is not my point of view. I am my own man. I am not my father. But there are many policies that president Mobutu put in place that benefited the country. He maintained peace and stability. I know it’s hard for you to understand how president Mobutu’s son got nearly a million votes in 2006. There are many things in the UK we don’t understand.”
Fears of chaos
Nzanga, who is married to Bemba’s sister, also criticised the election process and expressed fears over its aftermath. “I’m not sure this country is democratic; otherwise there would be an inquiry into all these issues. I’m very worried about the elections because this country does not need more violence.
“There are people who believe they can stay in power forever. It’s 2011. What happened in Libya, Côte d’Ivoire, Egypt should be a reflection for everyone. Certain things cannot be allowed in our country.”
The grim predictions underline how the second election in a fledgling democracy can often be harder than the first. There are widespread fears of chaos and postponements. Congolese officials are said to have made discreet enquiries as to how many polling stations they can withdraw while still getting international observers’ seal of approval.
In fairness, Congolese elections are an organisational challenge that rivals a World Cup or Olympics. Some 35-million ballot papers printed in South Africa and 186000 ballot boxes made in China have to be distributed to 63000 polling stations in a country two-thirds the size of western Europe. There is minimal transport infrastructure, but they will do whatever it takes: using foreign helicopters, dugout canoes and boxes balanced on heads carried along bush paths.
The international community has been criticised for complacency. Whereas in 2006 foreign donors provided 80% of the funding and the UN managed much of the election, this time their contribution has dropped to 30% (including £26-million from Britain) and the UN is taking a back seat as Congo takes the lead. There are fewer European Union and Carter Centre observers second time round.
‘Congo is not Côte d’Ivoire’
But Ceni insists it will prove the doubters wrong. “In 2006, no country had confidence in the success of Congo. In 2011, the promise of the Ceni is to organise free, fair, democratic and transparent elections,” said Jean Baptiste Itipo, the commission’s communications co-ordinator, sitting in a smallish office crammed with desks, computers and people. “In 2006 we set a good example, and now we intend to renew the confidence of the people.
“I cannot speak for the president, but I have heard him say he is ready to accept the results of the election. Congo is not Côte d’Ivoire.”
Whatever the fears, Pascal Kambale believes Congo will not derail a positive time for democracy on the continent. “Africa is going forward, by and large,” he said. “Even if things go completely wrong in Congo, the big picture is moving in the right direction. The number of successful elections in recent years is much bigger than ones that go wrong.”
Election at a glance:
Election date: November 28;
Population: 71-million;
Registered voters: 32-million (anyone in hospital or abroad will not get a vote);
Polling stations: 63 000;
Ballot boxes: 186 000, made in China;
Ballot papers: 35-million, printed in South Africa;
Presidential candidates: 11 — top contenders are president Joseph Kabila, Étienne Tshisekedi, Vital Kamerhe, and Leon Kengo Wa Dondo; no women are standing;
Parliamentary candidates: 18 855 standing in 500 constituencies, with estimated gender split of nine men to one woman;
Tightest contest: Tshiangu in Kinshasa has 1 700 candidates for 15 seats, requiring an A3, 53-page ballot paper, described by the election commission as “the biggest in the world”;
Logistics: Use of 61 helicopters: 43 from UN, four from South Africa, five from Angola, five Congolese army, four from private sector; and
Total cost: £452-million, with £26-million of it given by Britain. — guardian.co.uk