Competition between two unions for members is one cause of the conflict, and underlying that is the unhappiness of the workers who left the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) and joined its rival, the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union (Amcu). We know the NUM's membership at Marikana has fallen, hence the present arguments about thresholds for union membership above which the union can invoke a "closed shop" agreement.
It's rather suspicious that the NUM is renegotiating thresholds now that its membership has dropped so precipitously, as though it only queries the rules of the game when it's losing. The NUM is also, for now, refusing to vacate its offices at the mine, despite no longer being the majority union there. And it won't give reasons for clinging on, except to say that certain "processes" or procedures must be followed. And Lonmin is allowing the NUM to keep its offices, for now, even as it tries to reach an understanding with Amcu. Is it hoping for a multi-union workspace? Or is it just hedging its bets? Either way, it doesn't help to end the perception that NUM leaders were and are too close to management – one of the issues that led to the wildcat strike last year.
If the NUM has lost so many members at this mine, it should accept defeat and start from scratch to win over new members, rather than trying to cling to a position it has lost; it should serve workers, not rule them. It should also take this competition for members seriously, and ask what it really offers workers that another union can't. It could also be time for a thoroughgoing rethink of how unions do their business in this sector.