Drought stretches are expected to become more frequent.
The science is unequivocal: 2015 is going to be the hottest year ever recorded. That means 2014 barely managed to snuggle up with the trophy it snatched last year. In the process of this rapid warming, this year will see a significant milestone passed — by December, the world will be on average 1°C hotter than before the Industrial Revolution started.
In that time humans have burnt so many fossil fuels that carbon concentrations in the atmosphere have gone from 150 parts per million to 400 parts per million this year. That concentration traps more heat in the atmosphere and warms the planet. The greenhouse effect created is equivalent to an extra four Hiroshima atomic bombs worth of heat every second being stored in places like the oceans.
As a result, this year has seen nine of its 11 months break average temperature records. National Aeronautics and Space Administration records show that the last 12 months were the hottest year in recorded history. These records generally go back to the 1880s. Data from the Japan Meteorological Association show that October was not only the hottest October ever recorded, but was much hotter than the previous record-holder, 2014, by a margin of 0.2°C — the greatest single increase ever recorded.
This comes after a period where global temperature increases have been slower than in the 1990s, when two powerful El Niño phenomena ensured that the world warmed at a rate hitherto unknown in recorded history. That sparked a great deal of climate diplomacy, including the 1999 Kyoto Protocol to lower greenhouse gas emissions in developed countries. But this slowed in the 2000s as La Niña became the prevalent weather phenomenon. This has the opposite effect to El Niño and tends to increase rainfall and lower temperatures in the southern hemisphere. It also corresponded with a period of decreased solar activity.
But that, too, has been reversed in the last few years, with factors that mask warming now disappearing. For southern Africa this is a particularly acute problem, as the region warms at 1.5 times the global average.
The region’s average temperature has already increased by over a degree, a trend replicated in the rest of sub-Saharan Africa. This part of the world is responsible for few historical emissions of greenhouse gases, but will feel the brunt of global warming first. Other countries along the tropics will suffer a similar fate, as warming compounds already difficult socioeconomic conditions.
Research by the United Nation’s climate change unit — the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change — and regional groups such as the Centre for Social and Industrial Research shows that the African interior will warm by at least 5°C this century. Much of this will warming will take place before 2050. Coastal areas will warm by half this amount due to the stabilising effect of large water bodies, but will be faced with rising sea levels.
South Africa has long acknowledged the science of this, and has had active climate legislation in place before many other countries. It is also one of a few countries to ratify the second, extended, period of the Kyoto Protocol. Its Green Paper on climate change says that climate change must be mitigated because it threatens all the advances made in pushing to achieve the Millennium Development Goals. The poorest will be hit hardest, as they do not have financial buffers such as savings and insurance to adapt to a changing climate. This is already evident, as changing rainfall patterns have left South African subsistence farmers unable to cope. In turn, large insurance companies have stopped insuring crops in parts of the country because the risk of failure through drought, wildfire and hail is too great.
For South Africa this climate-affected future has come with an early warning and test, thanks to the powerful El Niño in effect this year. This has rapidly warmed the southern Pacific Ocean by 2°C and led to drought in large swathes of the southern hemisphere. Locally, it has added intense strain on parts of the country that were already going into their second or third year of drought. Over 100 000 head of livestock have died in KwaZulu-Natal alone, with the yield of staple crops such as maize forecast to drop by as much as a third — after a similar drop in the last planting season. Long-term predictions by the South African Weather Service are that normal rainfall patterns will only return by April next year.
But this is a historical norm for South Africa. The country receives an average of 450mm of rainfall a year compared to the world average of 860mm a year. It is the 30th driest country in the world. The lack of rainfall is compounded by it falling in a relatively small area: around Lesotho and heading north towards Swaziland. To cope, South Africa has managed its water stress through built infrastructure. Large dams and water transfer schemes have moved water from areas of high rainfall to those that do not have water. This is why Gauteng — a rare mega-conurbation not built on a major water source — is able to supply 11 million people and industry with water. That water has also allowed irrigated crops in the Free State and Mpumalanga. The five mega-dams around Lesotho have historically been able to store enough water to give the country a buffer during what are normally two- to three-year long droughts.
Science says that these drought stretches will, however, become more frequent and give the country less breathing space. A warming climate will lead to less rainfall in most of the country, with a corresponding increase in rainfall in the east. But this rain will come in short, heavy spells that will wash away topsoil instead of soaking into the soil and rejuvenating groundwater stocks. At the same time, the natural systems that collect and clean water have been destroyed at a rapid rate, thanks to industrial development in water catchments. Environmental civil society groups have identified this as a particular problem in the 8% of the country’s landmass which is responsible for catching half of its water. Coal mining in particular — for the very coal that is a driving force in global warming — has been allowed in pristine environments. This has seen large parts of Mpumalanga written off in terms of water quality. Pollution from mines has also seen polluted water flowing into neighbouring countries. Farmers in the province have been threatened with losing their export licences to the European Union as a result of the poor quality of irrigation water.
With natural systems under threat, the country’s built infrastructure response to water variability — the biggest impact of climate change in southern Africa — has lagged behind. Dams have tended to finish half a decade behind schedule. The second phase of the Lesotho Highlands water scheme is scheduled to finish six years behind its deadline. This supplies South Africa with 10% of its water. The department of water and sanitation’s own projections show that this will mean demand exceeds supply in Gauteng before that date. The province has already failed its future test. Record temperatures in October and November increased demand for water, which exposed flaws in the infrastructure storing and delivering water. Water shortages resulted.
In a climate constrained future, tests of this sort will be the norm. South Africa has indicated in its communications with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change that it plans to increase carbon emissions, thanks to new coal-fired power stations and other industrial developments, but these emissions will lead to an even more acute water crisis as the future climate changes.