/ 25 February 2011

No emissions recession

The deepest recession since the 1930s has failed to reverse rising global carbon emissions.

The deepest recession since the 1930s has failed to reverse rising global carbon emissions.

New statistics for 2009 show that plummeting industrial output in the West was offset by the continuing rapid expansion of China and a handful of other emerging economies.

Whereas United States emissions fell substantially in 2009 to levels not seen since 1995-96, China surged ahead with an increase of more than 13% on the previous year — the equivalent of the yearly emissions of Germany, Greece and Peru
combined.

South Africa, Europe, Russia and Canada saw their emissions dip. India rose to third place in the league table, with the strong growth in its carbon output driven by a ramping-up of coal burning to generate power. Overall, by these estimates, global emissions fell by a tiny 0.1%.

For short periods in the wake of less severe recessions, such as those in 1981 to 1983 and 1991 to 1992, emissions fell more steeply, only to continue their upward trend shortly afterwards.

These statistics, from the US Energy Information Administration, track only carbon dioxide emitted by energy use, such as from coal and gas power stations, and motor vehicles.

They exclude emissions from other sources such as methane from livestock and deforestation. Future emissions trends depend on China, which overtook the US as the world’s biggest emitter in 2006-07.

China’s emissions have risen just as fast as its runaway economic growth, but the government is hoping to reduce the country’s emissions by 2020. —