/ 13 November 2013

Bonds rise and rand falls on slower retail sales

The rand weakened from below R8.80 against the dollar to R9 on Monday.
The rand weakened from below R8.80 against the dollar to R9 on Monday.

South African bonds gained for the first time in four days after retail sales missed estimates, prompting speculation that interest rates may be held for longer. The rand weakened against the dollar.

Retail sales expanded at the slowest rate in almost four years in September, a report showed on Wednesday, adding to pressure on the South African Reserve Bank to delay raising its benchmark repurchase rate.

Foreign investors were net buyers of R32-million of debt on Tuesday, ending six straight days of outflows, the longest streak since May 29, according to Johannesburg Stock Exchange data.

"While the market is still pricing in a March start to policy normalisation locally, the growth and inflation outlooks do not seem to justify this," Carmen Nel, a Rand Merchant Bank analyst said. 

Yields on bonds due December 2026 dropped 10 basis points, or 0.1 percentage point, to 8.25% on Wednesday, after rising on Tuesday to the highest level since September 6. The rand weakened less than 0.15 to 10.3722 per dollar after earlier adding 0.4%.

Retail sales growth was 0.2% in September from a revised 3.2% the previous month. That was the slowest expansion since December 2009, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The median estimate of 15 economists in a Bloomberg survey was for 2.5%.

The Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee will leave the repurchase rate unchanged at 5% when it meets on November 21, according to all five economists in a Bloomberg survey.– Bloomberg