The Pietermaritzburg high court was surprised by the delay in Bloemfontein but said it would likely not be the last as Jacob Zuma has indicated he would approach the Constitutional Court if denied leave to appeal
No, really. This time it is happening. The release of former public protector Thuli Madonsela’s report into the capture of the state by the Gupta family was finally released on Wednesday afternoon and it did not contain good news for President Jacob Zuma. He hasn’t had any in a good few weeks.
The public protector recommended that the president appoint a commission of inquiry within 30 days to fully investigate the extent of state capture, the head of which will be selected by the Chief Justice Mogoeng Mogoeng. This will be no Seriti Commission or Marikana whitewash. The opportunity to manage the process to a desired result is substantially reduced by the involvement of the chief justice and the powers that the commission will have – exactly those of the public protector.
The public protector is also to approach the National Prosecuting Authority and Directorate for Priority Crime Investigation where evidence of crime has been uncovered.
The doors will be blown wide open. All the dirty secrets will come tumbling out. The evidence brought to light so far, such as the revelations of R6.8-billion in suspsicious Gupta-company transactions, points to a mountain of horror that is yet to be brought to light.
Then there’s the small matter of 783 charges against Zuma including, among other things, fraud, corruption and racketeering, which has not gone away. His lawyers must present oral arguments as to why the Supreme Court of Appeals should reverse the High Court’s decision that the 2009 decision to drop the charges was irrational. This is another dead-end for Zuma – the High Court refused to hear an appeal on the grounds that the chances of success were non-existent.
The legal fights could take a while. The game of politics doesn’t wait. It is on this front where the writing is on the wall for Zuma. He has pushed the ANC into a very awkward position. For one thing, the state capture report provides compelling evidence that the president was not in fact taking directives from Luthuli House on how to run his government, but rather from his iffy friends.The ruling party must now fend off the attentions of opposition parties in Parliament and the attentions of what will be a hostile commission of inquiry too.
The weakness of Zuma’s position is demonstrated by the boldness of his detractors of late. The ANC’s parliamentary chief whip, Jackson Mthembu, has gone on a media blitz to inform his party leader and the entire national executive committee that it is time to go.
The National Health Education & Allied Workers Union (Nehawu) has become the first affilliate of Cosatu to publicly call for him to step down. On Wednesday, Gauteng ANC chairperson Paul Mashatile made a very public appearance at the #SaveSouthAfrica event, in spite of ANC secretary-general Gwede Mantashe saying that there was no need for the party to attend the event. He too called for Zuma’s head.
The anti-Zuma jamboree at St Alban’s Cathedral may not have been the start of an ANC faction to oppose him and his allies, but it could be. The platform is now there. Mashatile has drawn a circle around himself and the Gauteng ANC and he’s placed Jackson Mthembu inside of it.
”Come join us if you’ve had enough of all this,” he beckoned to comrades. ”We couldn’t speak up before, but we can now.” This isn’t a silent scream into the ether – at the end of August, several branches of the ANC in the Eastern Cape called for Zuma to go.
Zuma still has one card left to play – that of brute numbers. He still owns the National Executive Committee. The premier league still control their provinces. The ANC Youth League (ANCYL) and Women’s League still back him. As does KwaZulu Natal. Unlike the recall of Thabo Mbeki, five of the nine provincial structures need to ask for a special congress, where the majority of delegates need to vote to depose him. His allies have a strong incentive to keep the patronage network that they and number one built.
It is entirely in their interests to manage the succession process and to anoint a new president who will not upset things. The ANCYL has already backed Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma.
Zuma’s allies are now looking to the future. His opponents are emboldened like never before. A battle line of sorts is being drawn, albeit slowly. A lot can still happen, of course. But people will be motivated to look towards December 2017 when the delegates of the ANC meet to elect a new leadership, not behind them to save a wrecked, lame duck president.
Pravin Gordhan for president?
The difficulty for many people within the ANC will be how to restore the confidence that the people once had in the party. While the question of factions and balance of forces will determine who wins the top seat in December 2017, sober minds will look towards 2019 and that general election. This year’s municipal elections demonstrated that the people will only put up with so much from the party. They have had to put up with a lot, recently.
The governing party needs to counter-attack strongly. They need to demonstrate that they have read the shifting politics of the country and will respond suitably.
How can the ANC restore this trust? Which person has the correct struggle credentials, public service record, broad public support and has become the face of the fight against state capture and for good governance?
Which person was called upon in a time of crisis when President Jacob Zuma tried to appoint a lackey as finance minister, immediately setting off a chain reaction that almost doomed the country? Yes. Him.
For most people it would be a handicap, but for Pravin Gordhan, not being tied to a particular ANC constituency, or faction, could be a boon if he ran as a ”fresh start” candidate. He is not necessarily beholden to any party power brokers.
By sitting quietly on his hands while the government fell about around him, Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa wrote himself out of contention for honest candidate. He is Zuma’s deputy.
There’s also the small matter of Marikana, which simply refuses to die down. He cannot credibly mount a challenge to Dlamini-Zuma (or whoever the current dominant faction eventually nominate) on the basis of clean governance or a fresh start.
There is precedence in the ANC for this kind of change. At the fall of apartheid, it was far from settled that Nelson Mandela would become the first democratically-elected leader of South Africa, with Thabo Mbeki as his deputy.
The party had to manage competing interests from Robben Island alumni, the unions and anti-apartheid movements that sprang up after the party was banned, MK leaders and the party in exile. A strong reason why Madiba emerged as the leader to take the party forward was his broad public appeal.
The way forward for a Gordhan candidacy would be far from simple. Of course it matters that he doesn’t have a constituency, but people like the Gauteng ANC could start to pull one together for him. It would be bloody hard work, but it could be done.
He would also need to convince a fair portion of the ANC that the problems they face are bigger than the person of Zuma, when the temptation to reduce the problems of the party to the man at the top will be enormous.
Most difficult of all will be to convince all and sundry in the ANC that their focus should be on the wishes of the public, not intra-party intrigue. For an organisation that has spent the last 10 years with its eyes focused squarely on its own navel, that change of perspective may prove to be too traumatic to countenance.
