South African President Thabo Mbeki is expected this week to outline a strategy to cut crime and poverty and prepare the nation to host the 2010 Soccer World Cup in a speech overshadowed by a deep rift in his ruling party.
Mbeki’s speech to Parliament on Friday has been preceded by a heightened debate over rampant crime, an issue which worries business leaders in Africa’s biggest economy.
Crime statistics show that nearly 2,5-million people were victims of violent crime in the past three years and a recent study also showed a probability that more than 90% of people will fall victim to crime in South Africa.
Business Day newspaper recently reported that crime had increased by 7% over the past twelve years, with common robberies increasing by 89% over that time period. The country also has the world’s highest murder rate at over 18 000 a year.
Mbeki (64) is unlikely to announce sweeping programmes and is more likely to recommit his government to expanding public works projects and preparing for the World Cup.
But this could be the most turbulent year since Mbeki took over from Nelson Mandela in 1999 and much of his time could be spent on the infighting in the ruling African National Congress (ANC).
The ANC is being torn by rifts ahead of a December conference that will pick Mbeki’s successor as party leader, and likely next president.
Although Mbeki can claim a number of successes — the economy remains buoyant, the treasury is expected to run a surplus and the black middle class is growing — he is dogged by some issues.
Crime is often mentioned as Mbeki’s most glaring blind spot.
Despite rising public alarm over high levels of murder and rape, Mbeki is seen as playing down the severity of the issue, prompting many to question whether he is willing or able to confront one of the country’s most pressing problems.
A cover story in the Mail & Guardian suggested Mbeki was in denial about crime, just as he had been in his first term when he questioned the links between HIV and Aids.
The murder last month of historian and Zulu war expert David Rattray, a friend of Britain’s Prince Charles, has added to the pressure on Mbeki to address the fight against crime.
”He will have to make a turnaround. If he wants to instill a greater degree of public confidence, he will have to talk about crime and acknowledge that this is a real problem and not just a perception problem,” said Ebrahim Fakir, a senior researcher at South Africa’s Centre of Policy Studies.
Mbeki is also under pressure to deliver a better life to the legions of mostly black South Africans still on the margins of this economic powerhouse more than a decade after the end of white minority rule.
More than a quarter of the nation’s workforce is officially unemployed and millions of others live a threadbare existence, surviving by selling items on the streets or occasional work as builders or gardeners.
Improving delivery of electricity, water and other services to this constituency has become the calling card of Mbeki’s government, especially after violent protests that erupted over the issue in black townships last year.
The ANC has governed since the first all-race elections were held in 1994, raising people’s expectations for improvement. – Reuters