US Pesident Donald Trump. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
Donald Trump’s re-election as United States president last week, coupled with ongoing geopolitical and trade tensions, have raised concerns that Washington may withdraw its financial support for global efforts to tackle climate change, leaving vulnerable countries like South Africa in the lurch.
During his previous four year stint which ended in January 2021, Trump withdrew the US from the Paris Agreement — a legally binding document signed by countries whose overarching goal is to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions and hold global temperature increase to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and limit it to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
The Trump administration in 2017 also scaled back both financial support and regulatory measures, adopting policies that encouraged domestic fossil fuel production under slogans such as “Drill, baby, drill”.
This shift away from international climate commitments left a significant gap in funding and leadership, forcing other nations to shoulder the burden. With Trump poised to reassume the presidency in January 2025, fears are growing among delegates to this year’s United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29) that the US could once again deprioritise climate finance.
Economists estimate that a lack of US involvement in climate initiatives could reduce available funding by tens of billions of dollars over the coming years, with far-reaching consequences for both developed and developing nations.
“Given the continent’s existing climate challenges, a decrease in US involvement in global climate initiatives could severely impede efforts to enhance climate resilience across Africa,” economist and futurist Professor André Roux told the Mail & Guardian.
The US is South Africa’s second largest single trade partner after China, but the two countries have sometimes had a strained relationship, which could affect trade and climate funding.
Since 2021, the US has pledged more than $1.1 billion to African-led initiatives focusing on conservation and climate adaptation.
During a media briefing on Tuesday, International Relations and Co-operation Minister Ronald Lamola said Pretoria would “engage with” Washington to strengthen their relationship.
“Our relationship continues to be dynamic and evolving. We should continue to engage with the US at all levers to strengthen the relationship. When we left there, we left with the view that we had clarified ourselves with members of Congress that the relationship is mutually beneficial,” said Lamola, who undertook a visit to the US in September.
“There will be challenges that will arise on a number of issues. There has never been a straightforward relationship but we think we will be able to confront and engage to find a mutually beneficial solution between the two countries, particularly on the issues of trade, Agoa and Pepfar.”
Lamola was referring to the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa), under which select African countries can export products to the US tariff-free. The agreement is set to expire in 2025, after being renewed in 2015 for 10 years. Pepfar is the US President’s Emergency Plan for Aids Relief, a programme that aims to end the HIV/Aids pandemic by 2030.
In a statement, Environment Minister Dion George said it was important to reach a new consensus on the $1 trillion climate finance target, known as the New Collective Quantified Goal on Finance, which would ensure a steady and scaled-up financial flow for developing nations.
George said this was especially crucial for countries such as South Africa, where coal powers much of the economy and the infrastructure needed for a rapid renewable shift is still developing.
South Africa, which is highly dependent on coal for its energy needs, has committed to reducing its carbon emissions and increasing its renewable energy capacity. But these goals rely significantly on international partnerships and financing — areas where the US has been a key player.
The country’s push for climate finance has been driven by its Just Energy Transition (JET) programme, a $8.5 billion package agreed in 2021 with the US, the European Union, Germany and other wealthy nations to aid its shift from coal to renewable energy.
Kedibone Phago, the director of the School for Government Studies at the University of North-West, said concerns over Trump’s approach to climate change could affect global climate efforts.
“A Trump presidency has the potential to jeopardise this agreement and force South Africa into a difficult geopolitical position,” he said.
The executive director of Greenpeace Africa, Oulie Keita, urged the incoming Trump government not to draw back on the decision to pay for loss and damages to countries that emit fewer greenhouse gases than the world’s biggest offenders.
“Africa, though a minimal contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, is disproportionately affected by extreme weather events due to the climate crisis,” Keita said.
African nations expected the US to honour its global climate finance commitments under the Paris Agreement, he added.
South Africa’s concerns go beyond the immediate effects of a US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement or the loss of international climate finance.
Trump’s government could send a message to other wealthy nations that climate pledges are negotiable, which could erode global confidence in cooperative climate action and weaken efforts to form a unified front in addressing climate change.
This sentiment was echoed by Marc Vanheukelen, a former EU climate envoy, who warned that Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Paris Agreement would cause a ripple effect.
“If the US, as the second-biggest emitter and world’s largest economy, doesn’t commit to climate targets, why should others?” he said at the opening of COP29.
George said bilateral discussions between South African and EU representatives at COP29 are expected to address potential accommodations for South Africa’s unique economic situation, particularly with regard to trade measures such as the EU’s border tax, which could disproportionately affect developing economies.
He added that there was a need to adopt Article 6.4 rules of the Paris Agreement, which would enable immediate carbon market measures and unlock projects that contribute to economic growth and the decarbonisation of value chains.
“By establishing transparent and robust mechanisms under Article 6, we can enable countries to work together more effectively,” George said.
On Monday, US climate envoy John Podesta, who is serving under outgoing President Joe Biden, called on governments to believe in his country’s clean energy economy, saying although Trump could slow the process of climate funding, he cannot stop its climate change pledges.
While financing remains a problem, some South African leaders have advocated for self-sufficiency in developing sustainable energy solutions.
Andrew Middleton, chief executive of renewable energy firm GoSOLr, stressed the importance of African nations harnessing their natural resources, particularly solar power, to reduce dependence on foreign funds and establish a leading role in sustainable energy.
“Finance is critical, but Africa’s resources position us uniquely to be leaders in the global energy transition,” Middleton said.