Will he, will he not? Despite the rumours gaining traction around billionaire businessman Patrice Motsepe being in the running to replace President
Cyril Ramphosa, his office has consistently denied any intention of him entering politics. Photo: Milken Institute
As the ANC prepares for its first leadership succession since losing its parliamentary majority, speculation is mounting over billionaire mining executive Patrice Motsepe as a potential successor to Cyril Ramaphosa.
Insiders describe these talks as a strategic, precautionary effort aimed at stabilising both the party and South Africa’s economy ahead of the 2027 national conference and the 2029 general election.
Four ANC sources, business executives and political party officials told the Mail & Guardian that Motsepe’s name has moved beyond informal speculation into structured discussions, driven by concerns over declining investor confidence in the country’s political leadership.
Motsepe’s office, however, has consistently denied any intention of entering politics. His spokesperson, Luxolo September, said the Confederation of African Football (CAF) president had “not changed his position” and remained focused on his business and philanthropic work.
“Dr Motsepe has said repeatedly that he is not joining party politics and that position has not shifted,” September told the M&G.
Despite these denials, a senior government communications official and lobbyist affiliated with the South African Communist Party (SACP) told the M&G that he has formally taken on the role of head of media and public relations for the “PM27” campaign – an organised ANC effort exploring whether Motsepe could serve as a unifying figure within the party.
“This is not about Patrice waking up one morning and wanting to be president,” the lobbyist said. “It is about stabilising the centre of power before the ANC implodes. We are engaging with leaders and business stakeholders to prepare for scenarios, not to push him into politics.”
The campaign, referred to internally as “PM27,” involves scenario planning, consultations with provincial and business leaders and mapping support across ANC structures. “The intention is to prepare for outcomes we hope never materialise,” the lobbyist said.
Senior business leaders have also taken note, viewing the initiative as a response to the ANC’s ongoing internal disputes and policy incoherence rather than an ideological endorsement of Motsepe himself.
A senior banking executive said the party’s divisions were concerning markets and that Motsepe was seen as a credible, neutral candidate who could stabilise the party and reassure investors.
“His continental profile, including leadership in CAF and relationships with global investors makes him an acceptable interlocutor for both domestic and international stakeholders,” the executive said.
A banking executive from another bank described early engagement in succession planning as risk management, rather than an attempt to capture the party.
“Business isn’t trying to dictate any party’s policy. We want to prevent instability that could hurt the economy. Preparing for potential leadership changes early allows us to engage constructively, ensuring continuity and minimising uncertainty that can affect investment and jobs.”
Business Unity South Africa (Busa) echoed the message, stressing that its interest lies in stabilising the economic environment rather than influencing political outcomes.
“We are not endorsing any candidate,” a senior Busa leader said. “Our concern is that leadership uncertainty in the ANC creates economic risk. If someone like Motsepe can provide stability, it benefits the country but that is separate from party politics.”
Within the ANC, reaction to Motsepe’s potential emergence has been mixed, reflecting anxiety about the party’s declining authority. A member of the national executive committee (NEC) said Motsepe’s appeal lay in his perceived neutrality.
“Branches are tired of leaders who arrive with factional debts,” the NEC member said, adding that there is an argument that someone with independent power and resources may be less susceptible to factional politics and actually do the work.
Resistance remains from factions aligned with deputy president Paul Mashatile and secretary-general Fikile Mbalula.
“Some comrades see this as business trying to recolonise the ANC,” the source said. “When President Ramaphosa came in, we hoped he would redeem the party from the Zuma era but things became worse. Motsepe comes from the same business background, which doesn’t alleviate the fear.”
ANC provincial leaders in Gauteng and Limpopo have also raised Motsepe’s name internally, framing him as a stabilising figure capable of restoring electoral credibility in urban centres.
“Unemployment is killing the ANC among voters. We cannot enter the 2029 elections with recycled leaders who cannot speak to economic opportunity,” senior Gauteng leaders said.
The ANC’s alliance partners – the SACP and Cosatu – have also weighed in. While careful not to discuss alliance politics directly, both welcomed the involvement of experienced and patriotic South Africans in leadership discussions.
“Motsepe is a patriotic citizen and businessperson,” a senior SACP member said. “He’s shown good leadership even outside business, for example with CAF. Only time and experience can test him in politics.”
Cosatu stressed that labour concerns and policy fidelity must remain central. “While we recognise the need for stability, the ANC must remain accountable to its workers and the poor. External actors cannot dictate the party’s leadership. Our focus is on policies that deliver for the people we represent,” a senior Cosatu member said.
Rise Mzansi spokesperson Mabine Seabe said the party would continue to be in the government of national unity (GNU) in spite of who leads the ANC. “Rise Mzansi is a signatory to the statement of intent, which gives effect to the government of national unity, which is a coalition of political parties, not individuals.
Our daily focus remains on serving the people of South Africa by building safe, prosperous, equal and united South Africa,” Zibi said.
Meanwhile, a senior leader from ActionSA said Motsepe’s business background aligned with their messaging on growth and governance but declined to take a formal position.
“We as an opposition party cannot endorse any candidate from another party. We believe that the next leader should have credibility not because of finances or business acumen but because of knowledge of leadership,” the leader said.
The Democratic Alliance’s federal council leader Helen Zille said Motsepe could be a suitable replacement for Ramaphosa, suggesting the transition would be smooth within the GNU framework.
Within the ANC, Mbalula dismissed the idea that wealth should qualify someone for leadership, insisting debates remain internal and branch-based.
A senior ANC Women’s League official questioned whether Motsepe had the political grounding to manage grassroots networks.
“You cannot buy legitimacy. Leadership is built in the trenches,” she said.
Others noted that Motsepe’s lack of direct political ambition could undermine the project. “There is still uncertainty about whether he wants this,” an ANC strategist said. “And if he doesn’t, the vacuum will be filled by someone far more divisive.”
Internal sources emphasised that any leadership bid would require Motsepe to secure support across provincial structures, particularly Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal and the Eastern Cape, which together account for a significant portion of conference delegates.
Motsepe has no formal history within ANC branches and it remains unclear whether he would engage in internal campaigning.
Last year, Mashatile said he could not confirm whether Motsepe was a branch member, stressing that aspirants must participate in party structures to contest leadership positions.
ANC spokesperson Mahlengi Bhengu-Motsiri did not respond to the M&G’s questions, as polling showed that the ANC support will continue to decline.
Social Research Foundation surveys from late 2025 showed support below 50% in key metros in the upcoming local government elections, with overall support at 37%, while Ipsos polls from early 2026 indicated 40.2% nationally.
Analysts say these trends create both pressure and opportunity for the ANC to consider non-traditional candidates.
Motsepe’s financial independence distinguishes him from most senior ANC figures at a time when corruption scandals and weak economic performance have eroded public confidence.
Professor André Duvenhage of North-West University said Motsepe is broadly aligned with Ramaphosa’s economic and governance approach, making him more acceptable to business interests and moderate political actors.
Political analyst Sipho Seepe noted the growing role of external voices in ANC leadership debates, reflecting concerns about credibility rather than ideology.
Independent analyst Joe Mhlanga added that wealth and resources are increasingly visible factors in internal contests, with debates now focusing on who can stabilise the party and its electoral prospects rather than ideological positioning.