Jaspreet Kindra
The South African government is currently redrafting its strategy on the Zimbabwean crisis.
Various government departments, including the Government Communication and Information System, the presidency and the Department of Foreign Affairs, have been involved in a series of workshops and strategising sessions on the crisis over the past few weeks.
The sessions are being held in preparation for a presidential briefing on the crisis, in which a more realistic view will be presented on its effect on South Africa.
Sources attending the sessions said while it was felt that the government’s stance has not been wrong, it had been receiving inadequate information from the intelligence authorities.
Approached for comment, Ronnie Mamoepa, representative for the Department of Foreign Affairs, was non-committal and said the three government departments met on a regular basis on a “variety of issues to chart the way forward in relation to day-to-day developments”. He expressed confidence in the South African intelligence services.
The South African government and President Thabo Mbeki have come under heavy criticism from several members of the world community for not condemning Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe.
It has been explicitly spelled out in the sessions between the various departments that the clampdown on the press, the judiciary and the deterioration of the rule of law are the most important factors adversely affecting the economic crisis in Zimbabwe.
The concerns were heightened this week when the Mugabe-led regime used its majority to bulldoze the legislature to pass controversial legislation blocking independent radio and television.
Mugabe’s leadership of Zanu-PF has been identified as a problem.
It has also emerged in these sessions that Mugabe, whose popularity has waned among members of his party, is seeking a graceful departure from politics. Sources said Mugabe wants to leave after having established a perception that he has contributed constructively to the land reform process in Zimbabwe.
In the light of that information, the South African government is expected to adopt an approach focusing on a post-Mugabe scenario in Zimbabwe rather than a post-Zanu-PF one.
According to sources, it has been suggested that to help Mugabe achieve his objective of attaining some land reform targets, South Africa will have to play a more proactive role in mobilising financial aid for Zimbabwe from the European Union and other world bodies.
Sources say foreign exchange reserves in the hands of Zimbabwean businesses are expected to dry up in the next two months. The country has a parallel currency economy. It is believed that the Zimbabwean dollar is still overvalued by 56%. The country’s growth rate has plunged from -5,5% in 1999 to -10% this year.
The government departments have also been advised that Zimbabwe will be facing a food crisis in the next two months when its stock of maize the country’s staple diet is expected to be depleted. However, conservative estimates are that maize supplies will run out next month. Zimbabweans consume 150000 tons of maize every month. The food shortage could have severe repercussions on South Africa, with the possibility of thousands of Zimbabweans fleeing across the borders.
Sources say the overwhelming feeling in government circles is that South Africa has to take a proactive interest in the developments in Zimbabwe.
According to diplomatic sources, Mugabe has severely damaged ties between Zimbabwe and the EU. Britain, which has been vociferous in its criticism, has managed to mobilise Nordic countries in the EU against Mugabe.
The government has also discussed fears that Mugabe could create problems in the peace efforts in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).
Mugabe is apparently plagued with “paranoid delusions” about attempts to oust him, according to South African intelligence sources.
The sources speculated this is the reason why Zimbabwean intelligence officials had accompanied last month’s delegation of Zimbabwean ministers to South Africa. “There was a feeling that Mugabe feared we could be plotting a Kabila,” an intelligence source said, in reference to the assassination of former DRC president Laurent Kabila.
The Zimbabwean intelligence officials were sent out of the meeting last month between Zimbabwean Minister of Finance Simba Makoni, Minister of Minerals and Energy Sydney Sekeremayi, Land Minister Joseph Made, Industry and International Trade Minister Nkosana Moyo and their South African counterparts, led by Minister of Finance Trevor Manuel.
The meeting between the ministers was part of the new thinking in government circles to try to influence the Zimbabwean government to take a proactive interest in addressing the crisis.
The South African government is also likely to be asked to influence their Zimbabwean counterparts into drafting a new Constitution to address issues such as land reform in a more realistic manner.