The uptake of customised marketing packages favours electronic media, says Harry Herber. Which is one reason television will grab the big revenue in 2004.
Perhaps the one good thing about looking ahead is that nobody ever goes back and checks whether you were right in your predictions. So what does 2004 hold? The most exciting thing will be the continued evolution of how, rather than where, marketers communicate.
The movement to bespoke solutions will continue. Sponsorships, products integrated into programme concepts (as opposed to product placement), featurettes and mini-programmes on radio, tactical sponsorships, and novel placements in print will all escalate.
But certain media are better positioned to innovate than others, so the electronic media – cinema, TV and radio – will keep eroding print’s share of the ad cake.
Television, where adflation is minimal, is very buoyant and has huge scope. Sponsorships and promotions are only in their infancy in revenue terms, and a focus in this area could increase their share by tens of millions of rand. The natural synergy with radio has also been under-exploited and under-utilised. And cinema in particular – well niched, affluent and younger – has regenerated itself as a flexible and impactful option (to hell with cost efficiency).
If one looks at the operators in these media types, I think that the savvy marketer will exploit opportunities within the PBS stations in the SABC portfolio. Metro, Yfm and Kaya all should show strong revenue growth. The relaunch of 5fm should bite, and East Coast Radio and Jacaranda could prove to be the winners in regional radio.
TV will be fiercely competitive, and the spoils will go to those with the best scheduling, pricing, and marketing. DStv still has the biggest potential upside in revenue growth, but given the current trend all stations should be looking forward to a good year. M-Net with its eroding base is perhaps most vulnerable, and with e.tv now firmly established as a viewer option the battle for audience will be interesting. Increased consumer marketing from the SABC bouquet is also sure to result in some competitive deals being made available to marketers.
Print is up against the wall, although there are opportunities. The Daily Sun has bucked the trend and currently gives great value to the advertiser, and initial circulation numbers on ThisDay have been pleasantly surprising. The 2004 general election should generate a welcome revenue boost, presuming the space isn’t discounted to hell (which is quite possible). But, all said, there are too many newspaper titles fighting for retail and cell phone money.
Magazines will remain quiet. Their base of business is fairly secure, but expect no fireworks. If anything, the rationalisation that has been happening will continue.
Perhaps the messiest and least controlled sector currently is outdoor. Companies are creeping out the woodwork with unestablished credentials and non-existent track records. This is typical of the industry, which every few years has to undergo a ‘clean-up”. On the other hand, good well-priced inventory is available. The potential of commuter media must soon attract new converts and one can expect good growth in this area.
Internet? Well it never really made it onto the radar screen expect for a brief blip. Niched, with limited convertees in the marketplace, it will certainly not be making any headlines in 2004.
So who’s going to get the Oscar for the biggest revenue gain in 2004? Undoubtedly TV, if their current marketing platforms are anything to go by. Hyper-competitive, virtually zero current inflation (so maybe only limited ratio hikes?), heavyweight sales teams, and a sense of partnership will all contribute to their success. Couple this with the flexibility that has emerged, as well as the focus on alternative and new opportunities, and the competition won’t stand a chance.
Harry Herber is group managing director of The MediaShop.