The sale of Old Mutual’s 53% stake in ailing Nedcor looks very probable — if the price is right. Last week the two parties reacted to media speculation by refusing to comment.
In a statement released on December 23, Old Mutual financial director Julian Roberts made a firm commitment to the banking group. Roberts suggested that the assurer intended sticking it out while new Nedcor CEO Tom Boardman sorted out the bank’s balance sheet. However, everything has its price. In late December Old Mutual announced that its 2003 earnings would be down by around 10% to 13%. Ailing subsidiaries, particularly Nedcor, were fingered as the culprits.
After the announcement, Old Mutual’s share price fell 2,6% on the JSE Securities Exchange to R11,20. In the United Kingdom the backlash was more brutal — its London Stock Exchange-listed shares dropped 0,75p to 93p, but have since recovered to 95p.
By Wednesday this week, Nedcor’s shares rose 7%, apparently on the back of the sale rumours. At least three large foreign banks — HSBC, Standard Chartered and Citigroup — have operations in South Africa and are potential buyers.
Old Mutual is exposed to substantial potential losses from its under-performing, wholly-owned United States-based asset management subsidiary Pilgrim Baxter, which in turn faces massive costs and loss of profits associated with legal action in the ongoing mutual fund scandal in the US.
Old Mutual could do with a substantial cash inflow in 2004. It may also be keen to win back its investment appeal, particularly for UK shareholders.
Heightening rumours of a planned sale is the fact that it recently sold another underperforming subsidiary, UK-based Gerrards Management Services, to Barclays Bank.
It is possible that the assurer has attempted to settle Pilgrim Baxter’s legal problems in recent weeks, putting a firm and unexpectedly large figure on its exposure.
It may have been approached by deal-makers looking to facilitate a sale of its Nedcor stake. Alternatively, it may itself have sounded out prospective buyers or retained an agent to do so. Lazard Asset Management assisted with the Gerrards deal.