The coming year promises to be the most turbulent in South Africa since apartheid’s demise with an already acrimonious battle for the leadership of the governing African National Congress (ANC) set to spill out into the open.
Thabo Mbeki, not due to stand down as state president until 2009, is set to relinquish his post as ANC supremo at a December conference with Jacob Zuma, the man whom he sacked as his number two, looking to place his foot on the traditional stepping stone to the highest office.
Mbeki will also face a new opposition leader when the Democratic Alliance (DA) chooses a successor to the outgoing Tony Leon.
”I would say it will be the most divisive year” since the end of the whites-only regime in 1994, said Cape Town-based analyst Daniel Silke.
”The battle for leadership in both spheres has the potential to create internal ructions.”
The last succession contest a decade ago, when Mbeki replaced Nelson Mandela, was not without bitterness but the divisions this time have raised questions about whether the ANC can stay in one piece.
In line with ANC tradition, Zuma has not declared his candidacy but there is furious lobbying behind the scenes.
Fundraising dinners have been held to build up a war-chest while Zuma supporters have been fingered for a string of humiliations heaped on Mbeki, such as heckling one of his recent speeches.
The contest will play out a decade-long battle between supporters of Mbeki’s privatisation agenda and those who feel he has ignored deep-seated poverty.
Adam Habib of the Pretoria-based Human Sciences Research Council said Zuma had positioned himself as cheerleader of the have-nots.
”He agreed to represent that faction, he articulated that unhappiness,” he said.
Zuma kept in the race after being cleared in 2006 of rape and having a corruption case thrown out of court.
But the threat of new graft charges and damaging revelations in the rape trial have left a shadow over his head.
A recent poll in the Sunday Independent showed 60% believe Zuma has disgraced the country while half believe he would be a disaster as president.
The survey also highlighted ethnic divisions, with Zuma’s main support base among Zulus and Mbeki’s support at its highest among Xhosa-speakers.
Nearly 80% of those from Zuma’s home province of KwaZulu Natal want him as president compared with 31% of Xhosa speakers.
”For the first time within the succession stakes there is inter-ethnic conflict,” said Silke.
While Silke doubts the succession battle will scare off investors, ”anything that smacks of emergence of tribalism within South Africa would be of major concern to the international community”.
The potential for division has led to speculation the party will seek a compromise candidate.
Two names most frequently mentioned are Tokyo Sexwale and Cyril Ramaphosa, ANC high-flyers under Mandela.
Both went off to make their fortune in the business world after falling out with Mbeki but the Weekender newspaper said the president could endorse Sexwale and Zuma had put out ”tentative feelers”.
”The bitterness of the current succession fight could result in strange bedfellows,” said the paper.
”Ironically, Zuma might not be king but he is definitely going to be the kingmaker,” Habib predicted.
Mandela, now 88, has largely retreated from politics but his opinion as the last of the ANC founding fathers could be crucial.
”The only guy left is Madiba [Mandela]. I think at some point people will try and use his services one last time,” said Habib.
While the ANC contest will rumble on, the DA’s should be settled at the May party conference.
Cape Town mayor Helen Zille is favourite but the black chairperson Joe Seremane has also been touted as the DA seeks to shed its image as a party of the white minority. – AFP
