/ 27 February 2007

Alone, unloved and snubbed

In its seventh consecutive year of economic recession, Robert Mugabe’s stranglehold on power is atrophying in a way that was unimaginable a year ago.

The Franco-African summit in Cannes went ahead recently without Mugabe after the French bowed to pressure from Britain to rescind their invitation to the Zimbabwean head of state. Two years ago African leaders threatened to boycott the summit if Mugabe’s attendance was blocked, but this year there was quiet acceptance of his exclusion.

Chris Maroleng, a researcher at the Institute for Security Studies, said the withdrawal of the invitation to the summit points to Mugabe’s “increasing isolation”. He said there is gathering consensus that “Zimbab- we can’t continue to hold the development of the continent to ransom”.

Analysts say the French summit snub is not the only sign Mugabe’s international standing and backing is declining. Sources argue that in the context of the Chinese president’s stops in South Africa, Mozambique, Zambia and Namibia, the decision to skip Harare could be interpreted as a snub, especially given the fact that Harare is perhaps China’s most vocal supporter in the region. Since his spat with Britain’s Tony Blair, Mugabe’s government has trumpeted a “look-East” policy that has seen chunks of the economy snapped up by Chinese businesses.

Maroleng said the Chinese could be acting out of a sense of “hard-nosed” realism and self-interest and might be averse to engaging in Zimbabwe on the “basis of solidarity”. However, Eldred Masunungure, a political scientist at the University of Zimbabwe, said that while the decision by the French not to invite Mugabe was indicative of a change in stance, there was nothing unusual about Hu Jintao’s decision not to stop in Harare. “China is winning new friends, not only consolidating old friendships. China will never ditch Zimbabwe.”

Crucially, there is a big storm brewing at home. A confidential security report leaked to news agency Zimonline warned that a wave of recent strikes by doctors, nurses and teachers would spread to the rest of the civil service and the security forces. Last week talks between the Public Servants’ Association and government broke down.

The Zimbabwe Teachers’ Union (Zimta), the largest teachers’ union, which has been viewed as reluctant to confront the government, told its members to join a general strike initiated by the more militant Progressive Teachers’ Union of Zimbabwe.

Coupled with what Maroleng described as “growing discontent” in the military, the wave of strikes is a potent brew. Maroleng said discontent in the army and the police, the guarantors of Mugabe’s stay, would severely affect their “capacity and inclination” to crush dissent. But Masunungure disagreed: “I don’t think strikes will spread to the security forces in the short term. The act of desertions is their expression of labour unrest.”

Meanwhile, Mugabe’s fortunes have declined within his own party. Masunungure said although “the balance of forces were in favour” of him, this was his “most difficult time as [Zanu PF] party leader”. He predicted Mugabe will “face the stiffest resistance since he assumed the mantle of Zanu-PF leader”. He said there is a “groundswell of strategically placed people who will resist his attempts to extend his term”.

Cabinet minister Emmerson Mnangagwa, whose fortunes were thought to be on the wane, has come back into the picture. In his unedited annual birthday interview with the Zimbabwe Broadcasting Corporation this week, Mugabe spoke of Mnangagwa in glowing terms, all but snuffing out Vice-President Joice Mujuru’s ambitions to succeed him. Mugabe appears to have distanced himself from Mujuru because she has been associating herself with people, including her husband, retired general Tapfumaneyi Mujuru, who he says are on a campaign to “denigrate me”.

But Masunungure advised that it would be “imprudent for him [Mugabe] to take the Mujuru faction for granted” as it is influential in business, agriculture, the foreign diplomatic missions, financial institutions and the security services.