French President Nicolas Sarkozy looked set to win a sweeping mandate for his ambitious programme of reforms on Sunday as the French went back to the polls to elect a new National Assembly, the lower chamber of Parliament.
In the second round of the country’s legislative elections, about 35-million registered voters began choosing deputies in the 467 constituencies where there was no winner in the first round a week ago.
Opinions polls are unanimous in predicting a big victory for Sarkozy’s centre-right Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) over the Socialist Party (PS), and the only doubt is likely to be over the extent of its majority in the new Assembly.
Both parties urged voters to turn out in force in order to bring down the record abstention rate — 39,6% — of June 10. It is France’s fourth national vote in less than two months, and the country is showing clear signs of election weariness.
Elected on May 6 over the Socialist Ségolène Royal, Sarkozy wants a large majority in the legislature in order to maintain the political momentum behind his promised reforms.
He has pledged to summon a special session of the National Assembly in July in order to push through the first stage of his programme, which will include key changes to the tax system meant to encourage the French to work harder.
Demoralised and deeply divided over Royal’s defeat, the PS seems resigned to another five years in opposition and its campaign has focused mainly on warning against a too-large UMP majority.
Opinion polls suggested the UMP and its ally the New Centre will win between 405 and 435 seats in the 577-member Assembly, with the PS getting at most 170. Of the 110 seats decided in round one, all but one were for the UMP or its allies.
As the UMP already controls the legislature, it would be the first time since 1978 that a ruling party has retained its majority — a sure sign that Sarkozy’s claim to represent a ”clean break” from the past is widely accepted.
The PS currently has 149 seats and will regard it as a success if it can retain all these or even take a few more. If it falls to below 100, there are likely to be immediate calls for heads to roll.
Losers
The biggest losers in the election are likely to be the small parties, as the new Assembly looks set to be dominated by the UMP-PS divide.
The Communist Party (PC), once France’s largest, is set to lose several of its current 21 seats and will not have enough to form a parliamentary bloc. The Greens will have three at most, and the far-right National Front once again none, according to polls.
The third-placed presidential candidate, Francois Bayrou, also looks set to lose the gamble he took when he created a new centre party, Modem, last month and broke with Sarkozy’s UMP. He may well be the only Modem deputy to win a seat.
All but one of Sunday’s 467 races are two-way challenges between left and right. The other is a ”triangular” between candidates from the UMP, PS and Modem.
Constituencies to watch include Bordeaux, where powerful Environment Minister Alain Juppe faces a tight race. Prime Minister Francois Fillon has said that ministers who are rejected by the electorate will lose their Cabinet posts.
Several PS heavyweights are also at risk of losing their seats, including Julien Dray, Dominique Strauss-Kahn and Arnaud Montebourg. Royal herself is not running for the Assembly.
Voting ends at 8pm local time, with reliable estimates of the results due immediately after. — Sapa-AFP