The South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry (SACCI) Business Confidence Index (BCI) dropped even further in January to 93,8 after measuring 94,8 in December 2007.
SACCI said that apart from a single instance in April 2007 when the BCI flared up to 101,9, the index had been in a declining trend throughout 2007. This is the lowest January level since January 2003 when the BCI stood at 82,8 and overall the lowest level since October 2003 with the BCI then at 91,6.
The BCI was 8,7 index points lower in December 2007 than in December 2006, but the decline softened somewhat in January 2008 with the BCI only 7,7 points below the level of 101,5 a year ago.
However, the magnitude of the drop of business confidence during 2007 is clearly reflected by the January 2008 level that was 7,7 points down on January 2007 which, in turn, was only 1,6 index points below the January 2006 BCI level.
The negative business sentiment in January 2008 was in some way contained by record precious metal prices, slightly positive data on retail and vehicle sales and lower real financing costs. All the other sub-indices reflected negatively on business confidence in January 2008. International trade volumes, the rand, inflation and the stock exchange were well into negative territory, SACCI noted.
While seven of the 13 sub-indices were either neutral or positive in December 2007, only four remained positive in January 2008 while nine had a negative impact on the BCI. — I-Net Bridge