A legal reverse for African National Congress (ANC) leader Jacob Zuma has injected fresh uncertainty into South African politics, raising the prospect of a new president on trial for corruption, analysts said on Monday.
The Supreme Court of Appeal on Monday reinstated a raft of corruption charges against Zuma related to an arms-deal scandal, overturning an earlier verdict that had tossed out the case on a technicality.
“Although the ruling demonstrates the strength of South Africa’s institutions, the decision also introduces more uncertainty into the political outlook,” said Razia Khan, head of research for Africa at Standard Chartered Bank in London.
As the leader of the ANC, Zuma remains the presidential favourite in general elections expected as early as April.
Despite a tough challenge from breakaway party the Congress of the People, analysts say the ANC is likely to keep a majority in Parliament — though short of the nearly 70% super-majority it won in 2004.
Ebrahim Fakir, an analyst at the Centre for Policy Studies, said the latest court ruling marked the start of a new legal battle that could overshadow Zuma’s presidency.
“The appeal decision means we are back at square one,” he said. “We must brace for another round of the legal battle, which will probably end in the Constitutional Court.”
If Zuma wants to dispense with the case quickly, he could still try to strike a plea bargain with prosecutors, said Shadrack Gutto, a law professor at the University of South Africa.
“However, this might be seen as conceding guilt, and he will be required to make some serious disclosures” about the arms deal, Gutto said.
The investigation into the scandal dates back to 2001, with Zuma facing charges ranging from money-laundering to racketeering.
The main allegation is that Zuma received bribes for protecting French arms giant Thales in an investigation into a multimillion-dollar weapons deal.
The arms deal has caused controversy since the decision to purchase the expensive military equipment, and several high-ranking politicians have been accused of using the deal to enrich themselves.
The ANC could also try to stall the case by rushing through a constitutional amendment to prevent the head of state from standing trial while in office, but that could embolden the party’s rivals ahead of the elections, Gutto added.
“If Zuma manages to make it to the presidency with these charges hanging above his ahead, that means he will be constantly distracted from executing his official duties as president,” said Gutto.
“He is basically running out of options,” he added.
The court’s ruling rattled the markets, sending South African stocks down and leaving the rand weaker against the dollar.
“Investors fear that a renewed focus on politicking will divert attention from the all-important reassurance they seek that economic policy will not change in a meaningful way under the new leadership,” Khan said.
“Those reassurances are now likely to take a secondary role, as the battle for grassroots support intensifies.” — AFP