Neither side is as strong as they were in 2005 — but they’re still relatively evenly matched.
In England’s favour are home advantage and better spin options, which could be telling if the predicted hot, dry summer materialises. But the threatened loss of their talisman, Andrew Flintoff, would be a huge blow.
In Australia’s favour are Ricky Ponting’s experience and drive to reverse the setback of four years ago, better preparation and a more potent pace attack.
Prediction: 3-1 to Australia in a closely fought series.
At stake is the smallest but most valued prize in cricket: a 127-year-old, 15cm terracotta urn containing the metaphorical ashes of English cricket.
The last Ashes series in Australia in 2007 resulted in a humiliating 5-0 whitewash of the English tourists.
Two years on and without Shane Warne, Glen McGrath, Matthew Hayden and Adam Gilchrist, Ponting’s largely untried squad will seek to lay the ghosts of 2005, when England wrested the urn from Australia after eight consecutive series defeats.
England’s campaign begins in the surreal setting of Sophia Gardens in Cardiff, rather than at Lords next month. The venue shift is an apparent response to England’s woeful record at the home of cricket, where they have failed to beat the Australians at Test level for more than 75 years.
It also highlights one of England’s potential advantages — spin, an unthinkable scenario when Shane Warne was playing. Off-spinner Graham Swann looks more threatening than Nathan Hauritz and, with Cardiff expected to take its turn, the home side will be looking for a winning start.
But the aftershocks of England’s winter of discontent still linger. The Kevin Pietersen captaincy debacle, the Allen Standford affair and a miserable series loss in the West Indies suggest a team in turmoil rather than a well-oiled unit poised to grab back the initiative.
A convincing home series victory over the West Indies has provided a more stable launching pad for England’s campaign, but the touring side was one of the weakest and most poorly motivated to come from the Caribbean.
Although the Aussies have had their ups and downs, their recent series defeats were against much better sides -— India and South Africa —- and the return series victory in South Africa hints at a coming of age. They seem more battle-hardened and confident than their English counterparts.
There is also the large issue of motivation. Ponting is clearly driven to succeed in 2009 where he failed in 2005 and his decision to forgo the financial rewards of the IPL to focus on preparing for the Ashes clearly shows where his priorities lie.
In contrast the IPL may have been a costly gamble for injured England all-rounder Flintoff. There is a real possibility that he may be out of the Ashes equation altogether.
Flintoff was a big factor in England’s 2005 victory and his lack of fitness equally influential in 2007. His absence would be a huge blow to England’s balance and morale.
Even with him, England’s pace attack will be less threatening than in 2005. Controlled aggression and a master class in swing bowling by Flintoff, Steve Harmison, Simon Jones and Matthew Hoggard were key to that victory and whether James Anderson, Graham Onions and Stuart Broad can reproduce this will be crucial to the outcome of the series.
Lacking an attacking spinner, Australia will rely on their pacemen, with the major threats being Mitchell Johnson and Stuart Clark, if he is fit. Johnson’s pace, hostility and newly acquired ability to swing the ball will cause significant problems for England’s top order, who have not faced him in Tests.
Clark was central to the 2007 whitewash, where he took 26 wickets at an average of 17,03. English conditions should suit his controlled line, length and seam movement.
That Brett Lee, with 310 test wickets, is fighting for a Test place also suggests the Australian pace attack is more potent than it might seem at first glance.
The Australian batting has been hard hit by retirements since 2007, but they have high hopes for the new opening partnership of limpet-like Simon Katich and the unorthodox and highly attacking 20-year-old prodigy, Philip Hughes.
Ponting, Hussey and Clarke have been searching for form but all have experience in English conditions. And there are deep reserves in the lower order, budding all-rounder Johnson coming in at eight or nine before the tail is exposed.
England look solid at the top of the order, though Johnson is certain to target captain Andrew Strauss. South Africans will remember the hatchet job on the similarly left-handed Graeme Smith, breaking his hand twice in months.
The new England number three, Ravi Bopara, and wicket keeper Matt Prior are in top form. But the only English batsman with the spark of genius, Kevin Pieterson, will have to produce far more consistently if England is to pose a real challenge.
Justin Forrest writes from the United Kingdom