While South Africa’s large trade deficit in January of R11,9-billion was in part due to seasonal factors, underlying trade conditions are probably set to get worse unless industrial-sector exports improve considerably, according to analysts. Once again the monthly trade balance shifted strongly into negative territory in January.

South African GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2006 on a quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted, annualised basis at 5,6% is the highest rate of quarterly growth in 10 quarters, and could have been even more impressive had it not been for the poor performance of certain sectors.

Mark Mobius, managing director of Franklin Templeton Investments, said on Friday during a whistle-stop visit to South Africa that the reason for the strong growth seen in China and India was because of a high savings rate, and that this was a key reason for South Africa to improve its savings rate.

Exploration activity in South Africa was the lifeblood of the mining industry but it was not growing as fast as it should be compared to other countries, Chamber of Mines of South Africa chief economist Roger Baxter said on Tuesday. Baxter said: "Exploration has to be booming to boost the industry, but in the last few years we have missed the boat."

Mark Mobius, who oversees $30-billion in emerging-market equities at Templeton Asset Management, told I-Net Bridge on Monday that the relationship between the rand and commodities was not a simple one and that the key to reducing pressure on the balance of payments for a country was to add value to their commodities.

Standard Bank’s chief economist, Goolam Ballim, said at the bank’s economic briefing for 2007 on Tuesday that while the economic vista in 2007 would essentially be benign, the political atmosphere could be violent. "This year South Africans will more earnestly agonise over the presidency in 2009," he said.

South Africa’s seasonally adjusted leading economic indicator was reported by the South African Reserve Bank to have leapt to 120,7 for November 2006 from the still-high 119,5 recorded in October, and, according to an analyst, this indicates that growth is still quite spectacular.