Labour Leader Keir Starmer celebrates winning the 2024 General Election with a speech at Tate Modern on July 05, 2024 in London, England. Labour is on course to win a landslide victory in the 2024 General Election. Starmer addresses the nation promising Country first, Party second. (Photo by Ricky Vigil/Getty Images)
A little over a month after marking his first 100 days in office, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer finds himself managing the unpredictable twists and turns of governance.
So far, he has been having a mixed ride. Among the early trials of his tenure, the August riots across several UK cities, sparked by the murder of three young girls in Southport, stand out as a stark reminder of the fragility of social order and financial uncertainty at home.
With a commanding majority in the House of Commons, Labour is poised to remain in office until at least 2028 or 2029, and beyond, if re-elected. This month’s budget could define not only the coming year but potentially set the tone for the next decade.
Central to Labour’s agenda is a commitment to sustained public sector investment, tied to economic growth. Chancellor Rachel Reeves is recalibrating fiscal rules to unlock billions in borrowing for long-term investments, while maintaining a pledge to reduce debt relative to GDP — a bold strategy that could reshape Britain’s economic trajectory for years to come.
After 14 gruelling years of Conservative mismanagement, defined by the Brexit fiasco, crumbling public services and spiralling cost of living, the British public had one clear demand: change. The Labour Party, led by Starmer, rode that wave of discontent into office with a resounding 172-seat majority.
Yet, it was never going to be as simple as flipping a switch. Expectations of an instant turnaround were always overly optimistic. To their credit, Starmer and his team have hit the ground running — albeit with more than a few stumbles along the way.
Labour’s cautious approach during the campaign, refusing to over-promise, is now being tested against the realities of governance. It’s not glamorous, but it’s work that needs doing. The electorate’s decision to oust the Conservatives wasn’t just about policy, it was a repudiation of a party mired in incompetence and corruption, seen as serving the few over the many.
Labour was handed not just power, but a mandate for transformation. With such a commanding majority, Starmer’s government has the rare opportunity to implement its agenda without obstruction. The question now is whether Labour can meet the sky-high expectations of a nation desperately seeking competence and vision.
Yet, the most immediate tests for Starmer’s Labour government might well originate on the international stage. The prospect of a second Donald Trump presidency casts a long shadow over the geopolitical horizon. For Starmer, it could usher in a series of daunting challenges to the “special relationship” between the US and the UK.
Trump’s unpredictable approach to governance could ripple across crucial domains, from economic policies and sanctions to climate commitments and military entanglements in hotspots like Ukraine and the Middle East.
The previous Trump era, from 2017 to 2021, was marked by tension that tested the limits of transatlantic diplomacy. A second term could amplify those strains, with Trump’s penchant for upending established norms probably leading to even deeper divides. For Starmer, who could find himself navigating this volatile landscape, the options appear limited. The probable path forward will involve shelving ideological differences in favour of a pragmatic approach — one that prioritises forging a transactional partnership where collaboration is possible.
This uneasy recalibration of relations would demand all Starmer’s political acumen. As Trump leans into an “America first” rhetoric, Starmer may need to temper his ambitions for a globally cooperative Britain, focusing instead on managing a relationship that could be as fraught as it is essential. The stakes are high, with the potential to reshape the contours of US-UK relations for years to come as the prime minister faces a complex challenge.
To navigate these uncertain waters, he would do well to depend on the deep historical ties binding the two countries — connections forged through shared values in culture, religion, law and economics. At the core of this partnership lies a tradition of security cooperation, particularly in intelligence and defence, that has underpinned the transatlantic alliance for decades.
In 2023, Britain emerged as Europe’s top military spender, signalling its commitment to playing a pivotal role in regional security. A defence review commissioned by Starmer’s government is likely to advocate for increasing defence spending to 2.5% of GDP, up from its current estimate of 2.3%. This move would aim to reassure Washington of Britain’s seriousness on matters of collective security, sending a clear message to Trump.
Yet, Starmer must tread carefully. Trump’s transactional “America first” ethos leaves little room for sentimental alliances. While Britain’s strategic importance is undeniable, he cannot count on Trump to prioritise British interests unless they align with his own agenda.
Managing this dynamic will require pragmatism, resilience, and a keen sense of how to make Britain’s case in a turbulent geopolitical climate. The stakes are high, particularly as the shadow of a potential second Trump presidency looms large. A stark contrast is evident in the US where Joe Biden’s administration, despite a string of achievements, was disparaged by Trump, contributing to Kamala Harris’s clear defeat in the recent election. Starmer is keenly aware of the volatility such dynamics inject into international affairs.
Against the backdrop of mounting global uncertainty, Starmer has devoted unprecedented attention to foreign policy during his early months as prime minister. His November schedule reflects this focus, featuring trips to Azerbaijan for COP29 and Brazil for the G20 summit. Yet, he knows he cannot afford to let his domestic priorities falter.
On the home front, Starmer’s ambition to reimagine the UK as a “clean energy superpower” highlights his government’s long-term vision. Initiatives like the launch of Great British Energy, a state-owned green electricity generator, and the reversal of a Conservative ban on onshore wind farms signal progress. However, these are down payments on what will be a generational transformation.
Labour’s sweeping agenda demands sustained focus amid international turbulence. While Starmer commands a commanding majority in the Commons, the success of his programme might ultimately hinge on external forces, including the disruptions a Trump-led US could bring to the global stage.
Dr Imran Khalid is a freelance columnist on international affairs based in Karachi, Pakistan.