What now?: As Ugandan President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, now 81 years old, prepares to extend his four-decade rule, the country is at a critical juncture. Photo: X
Uganda’s general elections next year are not merely a political milestone; they are a referendum on the future of leadership in post-liberation Africa.
As President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, now 81 years old, prepares to extend his four-decade rule, the country is at a critical juncture.
Reports suggest Museveni’s campaign is being conducted symbolically through statues and caricatures of himself, due to his deteriorating health and advanced age.
While it is reportedly illegal in Uganda to publicly discuss the president’s health in a negative light, this commentary is offered with full respect for the law and without intent to defame or speculate irresponsibly.
Museveni’s symbolic campaigning, using effigies rather than personal appearances, raises profound questions about the nature of power, legacy and leadership in Africa.
It is emblematic of a deeper malaise — the refusal of many African leaders to embrace the grace and dignity that comes with old age and to leave the dance floor while the music still plays. Good dancers know when to exit. Unfortunately, many of our leaders do not.
A timeline of key events leading to Uganda’s elections:
• January to March: Reports emerge of Museveni’s limited public appearances, replaced by symbolic representations in campaign materials.
• April 7: National Unity Platform party spokesperson Alex Mufumbiro declares on TV the opposition will win the elections, despite concerns over electoral fairness.
• June 20: The ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) sweeps youth-level Special Interest Group elections, consolidating grassroots support and signalling a probable landslide next year.
• July: Analysts warn that opposition fragmentation and instability could pave the way for Museveni’s continued dominance.
• This month: Civil society groups raise the alarm over increased surveillance, arrests and suppression of political gatherings.
This timeline reflects a steady consolidation of power by the NRM, juxtaposed with a fragmented and embattled opposition. It also underscores the strategic use of symbolic campaigning and institutional control to maintain regime continuity.
Museveni’s dominance under the NRM is not simply a matter of electoral preference; it is the product of a political system that has systematically eroded opposition, manipulated institutions and cultivated a culture of electoral authoritarianism.
The opposition in Uganda, particularly the National Unity Platform, faces brutal crackdowns, arbitrary arrests and threats to lives.
Over 2 000 kidnappings have reportedly occurred since the 2021 elections, a staggering figure that speaks to the normalisation of political repression.
This phenomenon is not unique to Uganda. Zimbabwe’s opposition has long been stifled by similar tactics: intimidation, judicial manipulation and media control.
Zambia, too, has witnessed the weaponisation of state institutions against opposition figures.
Across the continent, liberation movements have morphed into ruling parties that equate loyalty to the “dear leader” with patriotism, while treating dissent as treason.
The result is a captured state, where governance is no longer about public service but about regime survival. The judiciary, civil service and security forces, once envisioned as neutral pillars of democracy, have been repurposed to serve partisan ends.
This monopolisation of power manifests in what I call the “bully syndrome” — a governance culture where select individuals exercise disproportionate control over land, trade, morality and law.
Unfinished legacies
The refusal to plan for succession is perhaps the most tragic flaw of Africa’s strongmen. Rather than mentoring successors, endorsing new leaders or building meritocratic systems, they cling to power until death or disgrace. This not only destabilises nations but also robs citizens of the opportunity to build enduring institutions.
Contrast this with the recent death of Kenyan opposition leader Raila Odinga. Though he never ascended to the presidency, Odinga’s legacy is being celebrated across Kenya.
His career was marked by fierce opposition, but also by moments of reconciliation and unity.
He understood that leadership is not merely about winning power, but about shaping the political psyche of a nation. Odinga’s willingness to embrace dialogue, even with adversaries, has left a lasting imprint on Kenya’s democratic culture.
African leaders must learn from this. Legacy is not built through statues or slogans; it is built through mentorship, institutional reform and the courage to step aside. The continent needs leaders who are willing to endorse successors, train political interns and create systems that outlive their personal ambitions.
In an era of digital connectivity and global mobility, the definition of citizenship is evolving.
Uganda’s youthful electorate must recognise that voting alone is insufficient. When leadership becomes dysfunctional and self-serving, citizens must organise, mobilise and innovate. This includes building virtual organisations, crowdfunding development and demanding institutional reform.
Zimbabwe’s diaspora, which is estimated at over 3 million, remits billions of dollars annually and engages in political discourse across platforms like X and Facebook.
These citizens, though physically distant, remain deeply tethered to their homeland. Their voices, contributions and critiques are vital to national renewal.
The “new mutual” in nation-building is not state-centric but citizen-driven. It thrives on collaborative engagement, decentralised activism and the democratisation of media and symbols. These communities challenge the monopoly of state narratives and offer alternative visions rooted in lived experience and collective aspirations.
2026 elections
Next year’s elections are not merely a contest of personalities; they are a referendum on the relevance and integrity of the statehouse itself.
The use of a statue to campaign, the suppression of opposition and the absence of succession planning all point to a deeper crisis — the illusion that salvation lies in the statehouse.
But statehouses have too often become fortresses of elite preservation rather than engines of transformation. From Ghana’s pioneering liberation in 1957, Zimbabwe’s promise in 1980, to South Africa’s democratic breakthrough in 1994, the African post-independence experience has revealed a sobering truth — despite decades of electoral rituals and constitutional reforms, most citizens remain economically marginalised and politically disillusioned.
Uganda must resist this trajectory. The future of African governance lies not in the age of its leaders but in the agency of its people. Statehouses might continue to dominate the headlines, but the real work of transformation begins in the communities, networks and digital spaces where citizens reclaim their voice.
Merit-based movements
It is time for Africa’s liberation movements to evolve. The culture of electoral authoritarianism, where loyalty to the “dear leader” trumps competence and vision, must give way to genuine merit-based political movements.
This requires courage, humility and foresight from those in power. African strongmen must understand that the most enduring legacy is not a statue or a slogan. It is a system that works, a successor who leads with integrity and a nation that thrives beyond their tenure.
The dance floor of leadership must not be a place of permanent residence. Good dancers know when to exit. It is time our leaders did too.
For Africans in general and other parties with vested interests on the continent, Uganda’s elections offer both a warning and an opportunity.
The following strategic considerations are essential.
First, institutional reform must be prioritised. International partners should support judicial independence, parliamentary oversight and civil society capacity-building. Without credible institutions, governance will remain hostage to elite interests.
Second, electoral integrity must be safeguarded. The proposed symbolic campaigning and suppression of opposition must be met with diplomatic pressure, regional engagement and technical support for Uganda’s electoral commission.
Third, youth engagement must be elevated. Donor programmes should invest in youth-led initiatives, entrepreneurship and civic education. Empowering young Ugandans is both a moral imperative and a strategic necessity.
Fourth, sanctions and incentives must be calibrated. Sanctions should target individuals implicated in state capture, while reformist behaviour should be rewarded through preferential trade arrangements and development financing.
Finally, regional diplomacy must be reinvigorated. The East African Community and the AU must play a more assertive role in mediating intra-party tensions and safeguarding constitutionalism.
The road ahead
Uganda stands at a crossroads. The elections are not merely about Museveni’s continued rule; they are about the soul of a nation.
Will Uganda continue to be governed by a liberation aristocracy addicted to power and privilege? Or will it embrace a new paradigm of inclusive governance, institutional reform and generational renewal?
The answer lies not in the symbolism of statues, but in the substance of systems, not in the age of leaders, but in the agency of citizens.
The future of Uganda, and indeed of Africa, depends on our collective willingness to reimagine leadership, reclaim institutions and restore the dignity of public service.
Wellington Muzengeza is a Zimbabwean built environment professional, pan-African analyst and interdisciplinary educator. His work spans urban development, political reform and educational innovation across Africa and beyond.