The latest official estimate of South Africa’s maize crop was ”over-optimistic” and could render the country unable to meet domestic demand, Grain SA warned on Wednesday.
Chairman Bully Botma said false expectations were being created that South Africa would have sufficient maize to also provide for the needs of neighbouring states suffering serious shortages.
”This could lead to a rush from our neighbours to buy maize in the open South African market, which might leave us with our own shortages.”
In such a situation, South Africa would have no choice but to import maize of an inferior quality, Botma said.
The Agriculture Department’s crop estimates committee in Pretoria on Monday adjusted the expected maize crop by 91 925 tons from 8 503-million to 8 595-million tons.
It said in a statement the adjustments were based on weather conditions, and information supplied by a consortium that was appointed to devise an improved crop forecasting system.
Botma said realities in the maize market did not support the new estimate.
”To begin with, the over-optimistic official expectations should have caused a drop in maize prices. That is not happening. Prices are either moving sideways or are continuing to climb.”
Botma contended the committee also failed to take into account that about 400 000 hectares of maize were planted late, towards the end of December last year.
”The potential of that maize is not good at all, especially because of unbelievable frost damage in March.”
Grain SA expected a maize crop of only about 8-million tons, which Botma said was just about enough to provide in domestic needs.
”But the crop estimates committee appears to keep pushing up its figures,” he said.
”We are worried about the response inflated South African crop estimates will trigger with our neighbours who are suffering serious shortages.”
Grain SA’s fears were compounded by a recent statement by Deputy President Jacob Zuma that South Africa was ready to supply Zimbabwe with maize if asked to do so.
Zuma was replying to a question in Parliament about South Africa’s role in the food crisis in the Southern African region.
Botma estimated the total need for maize from countries in the region would come to about two million tons.
”Where is that going to leave us?” he asked.
Botma said he did not blame the committee for the optimistic estimates as it had to rely on information furnished by various players in the maize industry.
”Our suspicion is that some of those role players are feeding the committee with inflated figures in order to drive maize prices down in the short term,” he said.
”Such operators then act quickly to buy, knowing that they are going to make a fat profit when reality hits the market.”
Crop estimates committee chairman Rodney Dredge could not be reached for comment. – Sapa