Defence Minister Thandi Modise . (Gallo)
South Africa’s ambiguous foreign policy won’t hurt the country in polite diplomatic circles but the ruling ANC’s “blind spot” on Russia could cost the party at the polls and dent the country’s pocket.
That’s the upshot of reaction to this week’s “bizarre” visit by Defence Minister Thandi Modise to Russia for a security conference.
South Africa was among a handful of “friendly states” toasted by Russia’s defence minister, General Sergei Shoigu, at the conference, including Burundi, the Republic of Guinea, Cameroon, Mali, Sudan, Uganda, Chad and Ethiopia.
Ukraine’s South African ambassador, Liubov Abravitova, described the conference as “bizarre”.
“It is wild. How can a country violating all the norms of international laws be hosting an international security conference? This is a country killing civilians and causing stress to global security.”
The Democratic Alliance slammed Modise’s “poor judgment” in attending the conference when Russia was “embroiled in a war after instigating an invasion”.
The Ukrainian Association of South Africa scoffed at Modise declaring South Africa as neutral and ready to work with “all peace-loving nations”.
“Russia is not a peace-loving country,” it said, calling Russia a “terrorist country committing war crimes” that had forced millions of Ukrainians, mostly women with children, to flee their homes.
In Russia, Modise described the meeting as a “peace crusade” and called on delegates to be “on the right side of history”.
She said the South African government regarded multilateralism as a central pillar to resolving conflict, adding: “We respect and encourage resolutions that rebuild people and nations rather than encourage the ‘might is right’ phenomenon. As a country, we strongly believe that proxy wars must stop.”
Modise said through “silence, inaction and selective morality” warlords were allowed to reign supreme across the world. “The world can no longer afford to be held to ransom by warmongers. They must be dragged kicking and screaming to the table of peace and multilateralism.”
Leaza Jernberg, a Johannesburg-based independent international relations researcher, said Modise’s trip to Russia and her comments reflected a divide between the department of international relations and cooperation and that of defence, which in turn shone a light on ructions in the ruling ANC.
“[International relations minister] Naledi Pandor is trying not to buck ANC policy. When she called on Russia to immediately withdraw its forces from Ukraine in line with the United Nations Charter, Thandi Modise was celebrating with Russian representatives in South Africa,” Jernberg said.
“I would like to know more about how that divide will play out. Modise’s remarks in Russia about proxy wars were a reference to the Cold War, but in the narrative being framed more broadly, Russia is acting like an imperialist power. Are we supporting a state that isn’t supporting a rules-based international order? You may not agree with a world order set by the US. Some change to it would be good. But do you throw the baby out with the bathwater?
“Our stance on Russia will affect South Africa materially. Our position risks alienating key trading partners like the US and most European countries and I expect we will see pushback against this in the ANC, especially when the consequences of our stance are felt.”
Although the US and the West might be disenchanted with ANC’s stance, they would be wary of pulling investment out of South Africa for fear that doing so would leave the door open for Russia and China, according to Jernberg. The recent visit to South Africa by the US secretary of state, Anthony Blinken, was evidence of this.
“This might be a case of keeping your friends close and your enemies closer,” she said.
There were a multitude of factors influencing the ANC, including internal power plays and the relationship between ANC heavyweights and Russia, she added, noting that Deputy President David Mabuza enjoyed cosy relations with that country.
“My instinct is that Ramaphosa represents the more rational ANC faction, but he can’t be seen to be too pro-West given where the power is in the ANC now, if you look at how pro-Zuma forces are asserting themselves. At the end of the day, though, it is one thing having popular struggle rhetoric, but issues of trade and security must ultimately hold over ANC blind spots, and Russia is one of them.”
When Blinken met Pandor in South Africa she described as “awful” the draft US legislation which could see countries that favoured Russia face sanction. She also said South Africa’s trade with Russia was worth $4-billion, compared with $20-billion with the US.
Emeritus Professor Francois Vreÿ, of Stellenbosch University, said South Africa walked a diplomatic tightrope, doing a balancing act but often falling.
“Saying we won’t be a proxy means we won’t be used as an instrument of either side against the other, but saying that in Russia now means something,” Vreÿ said. “Standing in Russia entertained by the Russians and saying warmongers must be dragged to the negotiating table could be interpreted as very brave. But who is the warmonger and who was the message for? It is typical political speak, saying everything and nothing.”
Vreÿ said the South African government’s stance was more pragmatic than the ANC’s on foreign affairs and the dissonance was jarring.
“South Africa’s bid to stay non-aligned but leaning towards Russia has to do with ideological affinity. In reality, we do much business with the West. So we don’t embrace or reject the visit from Blinken and we generally tend to condemn what the US does, but we also do joint maritime exercises with them on the east coast and significant trade with them. Sometimes our diplomatic tightrope act goes from balancing on the rope to clinging to it.”
[/membership]