‘Load-shedding will continue until 2027’

Eskom’s troubles will not be resolved anytime soon: the utility has forecast that load-shedding will continue until 2027.

Over the past 11 months, South Africa has experienced daily curbs on electricity supply. Eskom has faced chronic power supply constraints for the past 11 months with a record number of days, and consecutive days, of planned power cuts for 2022-23. 

Eskom has also failed to prevent incidents of sabotage at some of its power stations.

A medium-term adequacy report Eskom released on 30 October paints a worrying picture of the problems the utility faces internally.

The report aims “to assess over a five-year period the electricity supply shortfall risks that may arise based on foreseeable trends in demand and generation capacity in South Africa”.

The report says the utility struggles to execute planned maintenance at power stations due to internal problems and sabotage.

“The situation will worsen as the plant performance of Eskom’s fleet continues[s] to trend downwards, power stations shut down and demand grows.”

The report says there is a negative outlook for 2023 to 2027, as the utility’s fleet shows no signs of new or improved generation capacity. The report adds that the system will not be able to fully meet demand.

Sources investigating Eskom’s sabotage cases, both internal Eskom security and from the Directorate for Priority Crime Investigation (the Hawks) claim that offenders at Kusile and Tutuka power stations are being protected by management, who are suspected of enabling the alleged sabotage.

The investigative sources say according to the patterns they were gathering, the accused saboteurs received access to parts of power plants from management, in order to break down plant equipment, in order to then obtain a share of the repair work profits along with senior management.

“It is evident that management has a hand in these cases. Some employees are being covered for regardless of the level of the crime. We have raised this with the Hawks and Eskom, that there is foul play with Tutuka management and contractors who have been found with equipment, but were protected. We are currently also investigating the management there,” one source said.

Eskom roped in the help of the Special Investigating Unit and the Hawks to investigate several high-profile incidents and issues with employees over the past few years.

Last month, two incidents of theft investigated by the Hawks and Eskom group security have led to the arrest of four employees at two power stations in Mpumalanga. 

A worker at Tutuka power station was arrested on 17 October for allegedly removing 10 drums of hydraulic oil from the storage facilities.

“The stolen drums of hydraulic oil are valued at more than R800 000. The employee appeared in the Standerton magistrate’s court and was remanded in custody for a bail application,” Eskom said.

In another incident, three cleaning contractors at Matla power station were arrested for the theft of copper cables. The cables were hidden in a waste storage container. 

The Hawks, together with Eskom’s internal security team, are investigating several alleged crimes, including the theft of coal, diesel and cables; bomb threats; fraud and corruption; sabotage and various others.

A Hawks source in the investigating team added that they had found evidence that diesel worth R200 000 was stolen from Kriel power station in Mpumalanga, where a truck driver was recently arrested for colluding with a clerk to steal fuel and was allegedly assisted by management.

“The receiving officer let the transporter drive out after weighing the diesel load during the night shift and the fuel will be put in a different truck. Now this will be recorded as having left the station, with Eskom paying the load, but it doesn’t get to the destination. Then time comes for maintenance and the diesel is nowhere to be found. Now Eskom has to pay again, which is approved by the management, and no heads are rolling. We are busy looking at those cases,” the Hawks source said.

Eskom spokesperson Sikonathi Mantshantsha said the utility was continuing with investigating thieves within the utility and “would ensure those that are caught receive the punishment deserved”.

Incidents of theft and other sabotage cases has impeded Eskom’s ability to execute maintenance, which has seen the country experiencing unplanned outages.

Last month, Eskom’s recently appointed board called on Minister Pravin Gordhan’s department of public enterprises to accept load-shedding will continue for 18 months. 

The report suggests a low-demand forecast will see electricity demand decrease by 0.3% a year, while the moderate-high scenario predicts a 1% average annual growth rate linked to a GDP growth rate of 1.9%.

Eskom’s outages have tended to increase, which suggests its reliability maintenance programme, which aims to do deep refurbishment and maintenance to improve the performance of, in particular, the coal fleet, “in its current form may not be yielding desired outcomes,” the report said.

“These demand forecasts are compared with plant performance assumptions, and they take into account that Eskom’s generation fleet is expected to reduce by 5 288MW between 2023 and 2027 because of plants reaching their turbine dead-stop dates,” the report reads.

The report found Eskom’s energy availability factor will range between 58% and 67% at the end of 2027. It confirms power cuts will worsen. The worst-case scenario will see the supply gap widen from 18 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2023 to 30TWh in 2027. Eskom says an energy gap of 18TWh is equivalent to the generation output of Matla power station at full load. The station has an installed capacity of 3 500MW.

Eskom says additional generation will help narrow the supply gap “to about 8TWh in 2027”. However, “the envisaged pace of implementation of new generation capacity of about 10GW (much of which will be from renewables) will not be enough to fully remedy the supply constraints.”

The current maintenance regime must be reviewed to improve its efficacy, the utility conceded.

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SIU freezes pension of Eskom manager Duduzile Moyo

The Special Investigating Unit (SIU) has made headway in its investigation on Eskom’s managers who unlawfully benefited from fraud at the utility.

Kaizer Kganyago, the SIU’s spokesperson, said the SIU obtained a preservation order from the Special Tribunal to freeze the pension benefits of Duduzile Moyo, the former Eskom middle manager for program complex projects, who resigned amid allegations that she unlawfully benefited to the tune of R24 584 000, he said in a statement on Tuesday. The order will freeze a property in Silver Lakes Estates in Pretoria and two luxury vehicles.

The High Court in Pretoria also granted an order that preserves a trust and business named after Moyo’s children and two trustees on Wednesday. As a result, Moyo’s pension benefits will also be frozen after she handed in her resignation.

This comes after Eskom launched an investigation into suspected sabotage in its power stations, which led to increased unplanned outages which have affected the country’s economic growth negatively.

Following complaints by Eskom chief executive André de Ruyter, President Cyril Ramaphosa authorised the SIU to investigate claims of  sabotage and maladministration in the affairs of Eskom and the conduct of Eskom officials, and to recover any financial losses suffered by the state.

During the SIU’s investigation into Moyo’s conduct, it found that during her time as Eskom’s supply manager/contracts manager, she contracted with a business named Tamukelo. 

Tamukelo was appointed to transport raw and potable water from Kendal Power Station to Kusile Power Station.

“In her position as Eskom contracts manager, Moyo signed 23 interim payment certificates in respect of Tamukelo’s services for the period December 2011 to July 2014, totaling approximately R138-million.”

Kganyago said the SIU probe revealed that Tamukelo and its representatives paid entities linked to or associated with Moyo, while she negotiated and managed Eskom’s contract with Tamukelo. 

“The modus operandi employed by Moyo was to create structures of entities owned by members of her family and friends to receive these funds.”

He added that there was clear conflict of interest in that “she received these funds in circumstances where [it was] part of her duties and functions as middle management. Moyo was also part of a team that presented the negotiation strategy of the Tamukelo tender worth R300-million to the tender and procurement committee.”

The SIU added that Moyo also deceived Eskom and repeatedly made fraudulent misrepresentations, declaring that there was no conflict of interest when dealing with Tamukelo and other roleplayers for five years when signing Eskom’s annual declaration of conflict of interest policy.

“The SIU intends to expeditiously institute civil proceedings against Ms Moyo, 30 days after the conclusion of this interdict,” the statement added. — Mandisa Nyathi